Regime
Sector rotation in progress. Tech selling off hard while energy/defensive sectors show strength
Bias
Cautiously bearish on tech, constructive on energy and commodities
Best Setups
Energy momentum plays, tech shorts on bounces, commodity strength themes
Avoid
Avoid catching tech knives. Wait for clear reversal signals before going long mega-cap tech
high
4-8 weeks
3-5%
Energy sector showing relative strength, XLE up 2.21% while tech bleeding. Near 52-week high with oil stabilizing above $56. Momentum players rotating into energy
Catalyst: Continued oil strength, year-end sector rotation, potential geopolitical premium
Entry
$44.90-45.10 on any pullback or breakout above $47.41
Invalidation: Oil breaks below $55, broad market crash
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Adobe bucking tech weakness with +1.95% gain. Strong relative strength vs GOOGL (-3.2%) and NVDA (-3.8%). Volume confirmation at 4.2M
Catalyst: AI integration story, earnings momentum, flight to quality in tech
Entry
$356-358 on strength
Invalidation: Breaks below $350, broader tech selloff continues
medium
2-4 weeks
2%
NVDA breaking down from recent highs, -3.8% today with massive volume (221M). Failed to hold $180 support, showing weakness vs semiconductor peers
Catalyst: AI bubble concerns, profit taking, technical breakdown
Entry
$168-170 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaims $180 with volume
speculative
6-10 weeks
2%
Financials holding flat while market sells off. Near 52-week highs at $55.31. Potential beneficiary of higher rates and Trump policies
Catalyst: Year-end strength, rate environment, deregulation hopes
Entry
$54.70-55.00 on breakout above $55.31
Invalidation: Breaks below $54.00, rate cut expectations return
medium
GLD ETF or Gold Futures
4-8 weeks
Gold showing weakness despite market turmoil. Failed at highs, dollar strength theme. Real rates rising
Entry
$435.50-436.00 (GLD equivalent)
Key Levels: Support at $425, resistance at $437.50
high
USO ETF or CL Futures
6-10 weeks
Oil showing strength, up 0.52% while everything else sells off. Above $56 psychological level, winter demand
Key Levels: Key support $55, resistance $58.50
medium
4-8 weeks
3%
Bitcoin showing resilience at $87K, up 0.83% while traditional markets weak. Institutional flows continuing
On-Chain Signal: Large wallet accumulation continuing, exchange outflows
speculative
3-6 weeks
1-2%
Monero showing massive strength +1.64% and +7.59% weekly. Privacy narrative heating up, breakout momentum
On-Chain Signal: Privacy coin regulations creating scarcity premium
medium
2-5 weeks
2%
Ethereum showing weakness vs Bitcoin, -2.6% today, -11% weekly. ETH/BTC ratio breaking down
On-Chain Signal: Network activity declining, L2 competition intensifying