Regime
MOMENTUM/GROWTH - Risk-on environment with sector rotation into tech/financials/industrials
Bias
BULLISH with selectivity - Favor breakouts, strong relative strength, avoid laggards
Best Setups
Tech breakouts (ORCL, TSLA), Financial sector strength (XLF), Commodity breakouts (Gold)
Avoid
Defensive sectors (Utilities, Staples), Underperforming tech (INTC), Weak relative strength names
high
4-8 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Breaking out near 52-week highs with massive volume (86M vs avg ~30M). Trump/Musk relationship creating sustained momentum. EV leadership position solidifying.
Catalyst: Tesla bot/FSD developments, Q4 delivery beats, sustained political tailwinds
Entry
$490-495 on any pullback or continuation above $500
Target
$550-580 (next resistance zone)
Stop
$470 (below recent consolidation)
Invalidation: Break below $470 or broader EV sector weakness
medium
6-10 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Financial sector ETF touching 52-week highs with strong momentum. Rate environment stabilizing, bank earnings improving. Leading the market higher.
Catalyst: Continued bank earnings strength, regulatory clarity, credit normalization
Entry
$55.50-56.00 on any minor pullback
Target
$58-60 (measured move from base)
Stop
$53.50 (key support break)
Invalidation: Credit concerns resurface or rate volatility spikes
high
3-6 weeks
3% of portfolio
Explosive +3.34% move with massive volume. AI infrastructure play with strong enterprise demand. Technical breakout from consolidation.
Catalyst: Cloud acceleration, AI partnerships, enterprise migration
Entry
$200-205 on any retest of breakout
Target
$230-250 (next resistance cluster)
Stop
$185 (below breakout level)
Invalidation: Cloud growth deceleration or tech sector rotation
medium
4-8 weeks
2% of portfolio
Consistent underperformance, still 17% below 52-week highs while peers rally. Losing market share to AMD/NVDA. Weak relative strength.
Catalyst: Continued fab delays, market share erosion, margin compression
Entry
$36.50-37.00 on any bounce
Target
$30-32 (next major support)
Stop
$40.00 (above resistance)
Invalidation: Foundry business turnaround or major AI chip breakthrough
high
GLD ETF or Gold Futures
4-8 weeks
Breaking out to new highs at $4517, up 47 points. Dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying continuing. Momentum accelerating.
Entry
$4520-4530 on any minor pullback
Target
$4650-4700 (measured move)
Stop
$4450 (recent support)
Key Levels: Support: $4450, $4400 | Resistance: $4600, $4700
medium
USO ETF or CL Futures
3-6 weeks
Stalled at resistance, showing weakness despite geopolitical concerns. Global demand concerns, inventory builds, dollar strength pressure.
Entry
$58.50-59.00 on any bounce
Target
$53-55 (next major support)
Stop
$62.00 (above key resistance)
Key Levels: Resistance: $60, $62 | Support: $55, $53
medium
3-6 weeks
4-5% of portfolio
Holding above key support at $87K after pullback from highs. Institutional adoption continuing, ETF flows remain positive despite recent weakness.
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holder accumulation, exchange outflows steady
Entry
$86,000-87,500 on any further dip
Target
$95,000-100,000 (retest of highs)
Stop
$82,000 (key support break)
high
2-4 weeks
3% of portfolio
Strong relative performance vs other alts. Ecosystem growth, DeFi/NFT activity robust. Technical consolidation near highs suggests continuation.
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume increasing, validator count growing
Entry
$122-126 on any pullback
Target
$145-155 (breakout target)
Stop
$115 (support break)
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Down -59% from ATH, showing continued weakness. Recent -5.24% drop with heavy selling pressure. Momentum clearly negative.
On-Chain Signal: High token unlock schedule ahead, selling pressure
Entry
$24.50-25.00 on any bounce
Target
$18-20 (next support)
Stop
$28.00 (above resistance)
🚫 NFLX
Down -1.23% and showing weakness vs market. Streaming competition intensifying, far from highs.
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' at $93 vs $134 high, but momentum is clearly negative
🚫 META
Despite +0.41% today, still 17% off highs with regulatory overhang and capex concerns
The Trap: Strong company but technical setup shows distribution, not accumulation
🚫 XLP
Consumer staples showing defensive rotation, down -0.35%. Defensive sectors weak in momentum environment
The Trap: Dividend yield attractive but going against the momentum flow