Regime
Late-cycle bull market with selective strength in mega-cap tech and financials
Bias
Cautiously bullish on momentum leaders, bearish on laggards
Best Setups
Tech breakouts (GOOGL, NVDA), Financial strength (XLF), Gold continuation
Avoid
Small caps, weak tech (ORCL, ADBE), crypto showing distribution
high
2-4 weeks
3-4%
Strong momentum continuation - up 1.5% today with heavy volume, approaching 52-week highs. Tech strength intact, AI narrative driving
Catalyst: Break above $328 resistance targets new highs, holiday low volume could accelerate moves
Entry
$314.50-315.50 on any pullback or $328.85 on breakout
Invalidation: Close below $300 or broader tech selloff
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Making new 52-week highs at $55.56, financials showing relative strength. Rate environment favorable
Catalyst: Year-end positioning, continued rate stability
Invalidation: Break below $53 or rate cut signals
medium
2-3 weeks
2%
Breaking down from highs, down -1.5% today. Massive gap to fill from $345 high to current $195
Catalyst: Tech rotation out of expensive names, earnings disappointment potential
Entry
$194-196 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim $210 level
speculative
3-4 weeks
1-2%
Weak momentum, down -1.4% today, trading well off highs. Software names under pressure
Catalyst: Continued rotation away from high-multiple software
Entry
$350-355 on bounces
Invalidation: Break back above $370
medium
2-3 weeks
2%
Failed at $126k highs, now showing weakness at $87k. Holiday selling pressure likely
On-Chain Signal: Exchange inflows increasing, long liquidations building
speculative
2-4 weeks
1.5%
Underperforming BTC, showing relative weakness. Down -1.3% vs BTC stability
On-Chain Signal: Staking yields declining, DeFi TVL reducing
speculative
3-4 weeks
2%
Showing relative strength in crypto space despite recent weakness. Strong ecosystem
On-Chain Signal: Network activity remaining high, DEX volumes strong
Long Call | $195 | January 17, 2025
Strong momentum today +3%, approaching breakout levels. Options provide leveraged upside
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$8-10)
Max Reward
Unlimited above $203-205
Breakeven
$203-205 (strike + premium)
Ideal Scenario: Break above $210 resistance, momentum continuation to $220+
Long Call Spread | Buy $55.50 / Sell $58 | February 21, 2025
Financials at highs, call spread captures upside with defined risk
Max Risk
Net debit (~$1.20)
Max Reward
$2.50 spread - debit = ~$1.30
Ideal Scenario: XLF continues to $58+ by February
🚫 TSLA
Down trend intact, high volatility, unpredictable news flow
The Trap: Looks cheap after big run-up, but momentum has shifted negative
🚫 META
Stalled momentum despite being up today, trading well below highs
The Trap: Tech name that looks strong but showing distribution
🚫 Small Cap Growth
Russell 2000 showing weakness, down -0.7% today
The Trap: Year-end small cap rally hopes - but momentum is negative