Regime
Risk-on momentum with sector rotation in play. Financials and industrials showing leadership
Bias
Bullish but selective - momentum names working, laggards getting punished
Best Setups
Sector ETFs breaking to new highs, individual names with earnings catalysts, crypto momentum plays
Avoid
Avoid former leaders showing relative weakness (mega-cap tech), energy showing distribution
high
4-8 weeks
4-6% of portfolio
Breaking out to new 52-week highs with volume confirmation. Financials showing relative strength vs SPY, breaking through key resistance at 55.50 zone
Catalyst: Rate environment stabilizing, bank earnings momentum, sector rotation into value
Entry
55.80-56.00 on pullback or 56.10 on breakout continuation
Target
58.50 (first target), 60.00 (extension)
Stop
54.80 (below breakout level)
Invalidation: Close below 55.00 for 2+ days
medium
3-6 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Near 52-week highs at 123.63, showing relative strength in consumer discretionary. Holiday season momentum continuing
Catalyst: Consumer spending data, retail earnings beats, discretionary rotation
Entry
122.80-123.20 on any dip
Target
126.00 (4% extension above highs)
Invalidation: Break below 121.00 with volume
medium
6-10 weeks
3-5% of portfolio
Strong momentum with +1.1% move today, still 43% below 52-week highs but showing technical strength. Cloud/AI narrative intact
Catalyst: AI infrastructure spending, cloud growth, database modernization
Entry
198.00-200.00 on any pullback
Target
220.00 (next resistance), 240.00 (extension)
Invalidation: Break below 190.00
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Weak relative strength, down -0.52% today while market up. Trading near multi-year lows, semiconductor laggard showing distribution
Catalyst: Market share loss to AMD/NVDA, foundry struggles, margin compression
Entry
36.00-36.50 on any bounce
Target
32.00 (next support), 28.00 (extension)
Invalidation: Break above 39.00 with volume
medium
BTC-USD Spot or GBTC ETF
4-8 weeks
Up +0.9% today with decent volume, holding above $85K support level. Still 30% below ATH creates momentum room
Entry
$87,000-88,000 on any dip
Target
$95,000 (psychological), $105,000 (technical)
Key Levels: Support: $85K, $82K | Resistance: $92K, $95K
speculative
GLD ETF or GC Futures
3-6 weeks
Down slightly today, near 52-week highs but showing momentum divergence. Dollar strength headwind
Entry
$4,510-4,520 area on bounce
Target
$4,350 (support), $4,200 (extension)
Key Levels: Resistance: $4,555 high | Support: $4,400, $4,300
high
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Massive momentum with +8.8% today, trending #3 on CoinGecko. Privacy coins showing rotation, breaking out from base
On-Chain Signal: Volume spike confirming breakout momentum
Entry
$440-450 on any pullback
Target
$520 (next resistance), $600 (extension)
medium
3-5 weeks
2% of portfolio
Up +2.9% today, privacy coin momentum following ZEC. Still 19% below ATH with room to run
On-Chain Signal: Privacy coin narrative gaining traction
Target
$500 (round number), $530 (technical)
speculative
1-3 weeks
1% of portfolio (high vol play)
Up +3.4% today, trending on social media. New DeFi protocol with high beta potential
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL growing, protocol adoption increasing
Entry
$24.50-25.00 on dip
Target
$32.00 (next resistance), $38.00 (momentum target)