Pure Trade Ideas
2025-12-26 06:32
Regime
Late-cycle momentum with sector rotation accelerating. Post-holiday positioning driving flows
Bias
Selectively bullish on momentum leaders, avoid laggards. Quality over quantity approach
Best Setups
Financials breaking out, select commodity strength, crypto momentum plays
Avoid
Energy weakness, some Tech showing cracks, avoid averaging down in anything
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
XLF
LONG
high 4-6 weeks 8-10%
Breaking out to new 52-week highs at $55.89 with strong momentum. Financials leading market higher on rate environment clarity and strong earnings expectations
Catalyst: Banking earnings momentum, regulatory clarity, continued rate stability
Entry
$55.75-$56.00 on any pullback to breakout level
Target
$59.50
Stop
$54.25
R:R
2.3:1
Invalidation: Close below $54.50 - breakdown of breakout
XLV
LONG
medium 3-4 weeks 6-8%
Healthcare sector showing relative strength, within 2% of 52-week highs. Defensive characteristics with growth potential in biotech/pharma
Catalyst: Q4 earnings, FDA approvals, demographic tailwinds
Entry
$155.50-$156.50
Target
$162.00
Stop
$152.00
R:R
1.8:1
Invalidation: Break below $152 - sector rotation out of defensives
INTC
SHORT
medium 3-5 weeks 5-7%
Showing weakness at $36.16, down -0.52% today on heavy volume. Breaking down from recent highs with poor relative strength vs semis
Catalyst: Continued market share loss, AI chip competition, foundry struggles
Entry
$36.00-$36.50 on any bounce
Target
$32.50
Stop
$38.00
R:R
2.3:1
Invalidation: Break above $38.50 - reversal of downtrend
ORCL
LONG
medium 2-4 weeks 6-8%
Strong momentum with +1.10% gain today to $197.49. Cloud transition accelerating, AI infrastructure demand driving growth
Catalyst: Cloud bookings growth, AI partnerships, enterprise digital transformation
Entry
$196.50-$198.00
Target
$210.00
Stop
$192.00
R:R
2.2:1
Invalidation: Break below $190 - momentum failure
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
LONG
high GLD ETF or Gold Futures 4-8 weeks
Breaking to new highs near $4545, up 0.94% with strong momentum. Global uncertainty, currency debasement driving demand
Entry
$4520-$4535 (GLD ~$452-453)
Target
$4650 (GLD ~$465)
Stop
$4450 (GLD ~$445)
R:R
1.7:1
Key Levels: Support at $4500, resistance at $4600
Crude Oil
LONG
speculative USO ETF or CL Futures 3-6 weeks
Modest recovery from lows, showing some stabilization. Geopolitical risks and supply concerns could drive higher
Entry
$58.00-$58.50
Target
$62.50
Stop
$56.00
R:R
1.8:1
Key Levels: Resistance at $60, support at $57

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
BTC
LONG
medium 2-4 weeks 8-12%
Showing strength at $89K, up 1.50% with solid volume. Institutional adoption continuing, potential ETF flows after holidays
On-Chain Signal: Exchange outflows suggesting accumulation phase
Entry
$88,000-$89,500
Target
$96,000
Stop
$85,000
R:R
1.9:1
ETH
LONG
medium 3-5 weeks 6-10%
Strong momentum at $2974, up 1.26%. ETH/BTC ratio showing signs of strength, staking yields attractive
On-Chain Signal: Staking deposits increasing, reducing liquid supply
Entry
$2950-$3000
Target
$3300
Stop
$2800
R:R
1.8:1
HYPE
LONG
speculative 2-4 weeks 3-5%
Hyperliquid showing momentum surge +3.16% today, +9.06% weekly. DeFi innovation leader with strong ecosystem growth
On-Chain Signal: TVL growth in ecosystem, token utility expanding
Entry
$24.50-$26.00
Target
$32.00
Stop
$22.00
R:R
2.0:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
XLF
high
Long Call Spread | Buy $56 / Sell $59 Jan 31 | January 31, 2025
Leverage the financial breakout with defined risk. Maximum profit at $59 target
Max Risk
$1.50 per spread
Max Reward
$3.00 per spread
Breakeven
$57.50
Ideal Scenario: XLF continues momentum to $59+ by mid-January
NVDA
speculative
Long Put | $185 Put Feb 21 | February 21, 2025
NVDA showing weakness, down from highs. Semiconductor cycle concerns emerging
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$8-10)
Max Reward
Significant if breakdown occurs
Breakeven
Strike minus premium
Ideal Scenario: NVDA breaks below $180 on earnings/guidance concerns
⚖️

Pairs Trades

1 pairs
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 4-8 weeks
LONG
XLF
vs
SHORT
XLE
Financials breaking to new highs while Energy showing relative weakness. Sector rotation favoring financials
Entry Spread
XLF/XLE ratio at current levels
Target Spread
10% outperformance of XLF vs XLE
Stop Spread
5% underperformance threshold
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 NVDA
Showing weakness from highs, semiconductor headwinds emerging. Too much downside momentum to catch
The Trap: Looks cheap vs recent highs but trend is broken
🚫 TSLA
Flat performance, stuck in range. No clear momentum direction despite being near highs
The Trap: EV narrative sounds good but price action is messy
🚫 META
Despite recent gains, still 16% below highs. Regulatory overhang and competition concerns
The Trap: Strong today but longer-term downtrend intact