Regime
Year-end rotation with selective momentum. Tech weakness, energy/commodity strength
Bias
Neutral to slightly bearish on growth, bullish on cyclicals and commodities
Best Setups
Energy breakouts, gold continuation, crypto breakdowns, tech shorts on bounces
Avoid
Avoid catching falling tech knives, stay away from broken momentum names
medium
2-4 weeks
3-4%
Energy sector showing relative strength with +0.95% daily gain, approaching 52-week high of $47.41. Strong momentum with high volume confirmation
Catalyst: Oil price stability around $58 and year-end energy rotation
Entry
$44.80-45.00 on any pullback or breakout above $44.62
Target
$47.20 (near 52-week high)
Invalidation: Break below $43.50 or oil crashes below $55
speculative
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Strong daily momentum +1.33% with high volume. Breaking above resistance after extended consolidation. Relative strength vs semiconductors
Catalyst: Potential turnaround story and AI positioning speculation
Entry
$37.00 on breakout confirmation
Target
$42.00 (near 52-week high)
Invalidation: Failure to hold above $36.50 or broader semi weakness
medium
2-3 weeks
3%
Heavy selling pressure with -3.27% decline on massive volume (63M). Breaking down from recent highs, showing distribution
Catalyst: Profit-taking after strong year-end run, delivery concerns
Entry
$455-460 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim above $475 or strong delivery numbers
high
GLD ETF or Gold Futures
4-8 weeks
Strong momentum with +0.9% daily gain, approaching all-time highs. Year-end positioning and currency debasement fears
Entry
$4385-4400 on any small pullback
Key Levels: Support: $4350, Resistance: $4500, ATH: $4556
medium
USO ETF or CL Futures
6-10 weeks
Holding above key support at $55, seasonal demand patterns, geopolitical backdrop supportive
Key Levels: Critical support: $55, Resistance: $62, $65
medium
2-4 weeks
3-4%
Failed to reclaim $90K, showing distribution at highs. Down -2.94% with heavy volume, breaking key support
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holders taking profits, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$86,500-87,500 on any bounce
speculative
3-6 weeks
1-2%
Strong momentum with +0.8% daily gain despite broader crypto weakness. New DeFi protocol gaining traction
On-Chain Signal: TVL growing rapidly, active addresses increasing
Entry
$26.00-26.50 on pullback
medium
3-5 weeks
2-3%
Weaker than BTC with -3.06% decline. Failed to reclaim $3000 convincingly, showing relative weakness
On-Chain Signal: Gas fees declining, DeFi activity slowing
Entry
$2950-3000 on bounce