Regime
Risk-off rotation from growth to defensive/value. Tech leadership breaking down
Bias
Bearish on momentum stocks, cautiously bullish on defensive sectors and commodities
Best Setups
Short weak tech names breaking support, long defensive sectors showing relative strength
Avoid
High-multiple growth stocks, anything that's been a momentum leader breaking down
medium
weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Intel showing weakness vs peers, breaking down from failed resistance at $44. Semi sector rotation favoring NVDA/AMD while INTC lags severely
Catalyst: Continued market share loss, earnings miss expectations, data center weakness
Entry
$36.50-37.00 on any bounce
Invalidation: Break back above $40 with volume
medium
weeks
3% of portfolio
Financials breaking down from 52-week highs, showing relative weakness vs market. Failed breakout setup
Catalyst: Rate cut expectations, loan loss provisions, economic slowdown fears
Entry
$54.50 area on any bounce
Invalidation: Clean break above $56 with follow-through
speculative
weeks
2% of portfolio
Holding above key support at $260, showing relative strength in weak tech tape. Potential base formation
Catalyst: AI integration momentum, enterprise spending resilience, earnings beat
Entry
$265-267 on strength
Invalidation: Break below $255 support level
medium
weeks
3-4% of portfolio
ETH showing relative strength vs BTC, holding above $2950 support. Ethereum ecosystem upgrades providing tailwind
On-Chain Signal: Staking yields attractive, institutional accumulation
speculative
weeks
2% of portfolio
Bitcoin showing distribution pattern, failed to hold above $90k. Momentum players taking profits
On-Chain Signal: Exchange inflows increasing, long liquidations building
Entry
$87000-88000 on any bounce
medium
weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Solana holding key support at $120, ecosystem growth continuing. Relative strength vs other alts
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL growing, network activity robust