Pure Trade Ideas
2026-01-05 06:39
Regime
Rotational momentum market - some sectors breaking out (industrials, semis) while big tech consolidates
Bias
Selectively bullish - follow the breakouts, avoid the breakdowns
Best Setups
Industrial breakouts, semiconductor momentum, select commodities (gold), crypto momentum plays
Avoid
Big tech showing distribution, consumer discretionary weak, avoid falling knives
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
INTC
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 3-4% of portfolio
Breaking out with massive volume after +6.7% move. Momentum acceleration from oversold levels with potential sector rotation into semis
Catalyst: Institutional buying on turnaround story, potential AI chip developments
Entry
$39.50-40.00 on pullback or $40.50 breakout
Target
$44.00 (52W high test)
Stop
$37.50
R:R
2.2:1
Invalidation: Break below $37 invalidates momentum thesis
AMD
LONG
medium 3-6 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
+4.3% breakout with strong volume following INTC strength. Semi momentum building
Catalyst: Sector rotation, AI chip demand, relative strength vs NVDA
Entry
$224-226 on any pullback
Target
$250 then $267 (52W high)
Stop
$210
R:R
1.8:1
Invalidation: Close below $210 breaks uptrend
XLI
LONG
high 4-8 weeks 4% of portfolio
Breaking to new 52W highs with strong momentum. Industrial strength signals economic optimism
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, manufacturing renaissance
Entry
$158.50 breakout or $156 pullback
Target
$165-168
Stop
$152
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Break below $152 ends breakout
CRM
SHORT
medium 3-5 weeks 2% of portfolio
Breaking down -4.3% with volume, failing at resistance, relative weakness vs tech
Catalyst: Enterprise software headwinds, valuation concerns
Entry
$252-254 on any bounce
Target
$230 then $220
Stop
$265
R:R
2.1:1
Invalidation: Reclaim above $265 stops breakdown
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
LONG
high GLD ETF or GC Futures 6-12 weeks
Massive +2.4% breakout with volume near 52W highs. Dollar weakness and rate cut expectations driving momentum
Entry
$4420-4450 on pullback or $4460 breakout
Target
$4600 then $4750
Stop
$4300
R:R
2.8:1
Key Levels: Support: $4300, Resistance: $4556 (52W high)
Crude Oil
SHORT
medium USO ETF or CL Futures 4-8 weeks
Failed at resistance, showing relative weakness despite energy sector strength. Supply concerns overhanging
Entry
$57.50 on any bounce
Target
$52 then $49
Stop
$61
R:R
2.4:1
Key Levels: Key support: $55, Resistance: $62-65
₿

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
BTC
LONG
medium 6-12 weeks 3-5% of portfolio
Holding above $90K with positive momentum. Institutional adoption continuing
On-Chain Signal: HODLer supply still increasing, exchange outflows
Entry
$91,000-92,500
Target
$105,000 then $115,000
Stop
$87,000
R:R
2.8:1
PEPE
LONG
speculative 2-4 weeks 0.5-1% of portfolio
Massive +7.7% breakout with 62% weekly gain. Meme momentum accelerating
On-Chain Signal: Social volume spiking, whale accumulation
Entry
6.8e-06 - 7.2e-06
Target
1.2e-05 then 1.8e-05
Stop
5.8e-06
R:R
4:1
XRP
LONG
medium 4-8 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
+2.3% with 11% weekly gain showing sustained momentum above $2
On-Chain Signal: Regulatory clarity improving sentiment
Entry
$2.08-2.15
Target
$2.80 then $3.20
Stop
$1.85
R:R
2.9:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
INTC
high
Long Call | $42 | February 21, 2026
Leverage on semiconductor momentum with defined risk
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$1.50)
Max Reward
Unlimited above $43.50
Breakeven
$43.50
Ideal Scenario: INTC breaks $44 within 6 weeks
XLI
medium
Bull Call Spread | Long $160 / Short $165 | March 21, 2026
Capture industrial breakout with limited capital
Max Risk
$2.00 spread cost
Max Reward
$5.00 at expiry
Breakeven
$162.00
Ideal Scenario: XLI holds above $165 by expiry
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 6-10 weeks
LONG
AMD
vs
SHORT
NVDA
AMD showing relative strength vs NVDA, catching up trade in semis
Entry Spread
AMD $223 / NVDA $189 = 1.18x
Target Spread
1.35x (AMD outperforms 15%)
Stop Spread
1.08x
high 1:1 dollar weighted 8-12 weeks
LONG
XLI
vs
SHORT
XLY
Industrials breaking out while discretionary shows weakness
Entry Spread
XLI $158 / XLY $118 = 1.34x
Target Spread
1.45x
Stop Spread
1.28x
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 MSFT
-2.2% breakdown with heavy volume, breaking key support
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' but momentum is clearly broken
🚫 TSLA
-2.6% decline continuing downtrend, no momentum catalyst
The Trap: Tempting at these levels but no technical setup
🚫 META
Failing at resistance, -1.5% with relative weakness
The Trap: Strong company but price action is poor