Regime
Mixed momentum environment - some sectors showing strength (Energy, Staples) while others weak (Tech)
Bias
Selective momentum plays - focus on sector rotation rather than broad market direction
Best Setups
Energy breakouts, Tech breakdowns, defensive rotation plays. Look for clear momentum with volume
Avoid
Avoid catching falling knives in semiconductors and mega-cap tech until momentum shifts
high
2-4 weeks
3-4%
Breaking above 430 resistance with massive volume (82M+). Up 3.3% today showing momentum acceleration. Pattern suggests continuation to retest 498 highs
Catalyst: Momentum continuation after recent consolidation, potential earnings catalyst ahead
Entry
432-435 on pullback or break above 435
Invalidation: Break below 415 support or daily close under 420
medium
1-3 weeks
2-3%
Tech sector showing weakness, down 2% with heavy volume. Failed to hold above 146 support, now testing lower levels. Relative weakness vs market
Catalyst: Continued tech rotation, potential earnings disappointments
Entry
143.50-144 on bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim above 147 with volume
high
3-6 weeks
3%
Energy showing relative strength, up 1.07% while market weak. Approaching 52-week high at 51.73. Strong momentum with volume confirmation
Catalyst: Oil price strength, energy sector leadership
Entry
51.20-51.40 on breakout above highs
Invalidation: Failure to break 52-week high or close below 49.50
medium
2-4 weeks
2%
Consumer staples near 52-week high at 84.35, up 1.68% showing defensive strength. Flight to safety play with momentum
Catalyst: Defensive rotation, approaching earnings season
Entry
83.80-84.20 on breakout
Invalidation: Fail to break 84.35 or close below 82
high
USO ETF or CL futures
2-4 weeks
Oil broke down hard, -5.3% today. Failed key support at 65. Momentum clearly to downside with volume
Key Levels: Support: 58, 55 | Resistance: 65, 67
medium
GLD ETF or GC futures
3-6 weeks
Gold crashed -5.5% breaking major support. Momentum trade to downside as trend reverses from highs
Entry
4500-4520 on bounce
Key Levels: Support: 4200, 3900 | Resistance: 4600, 4750
medium
1-3 weeks
3%
Bitcoin broke below 77k support, down 2.4%. Failed to hold key level with heavy selling volume. Momentum turning bearish
On-Chain Signal: Heavy exchange inflows suggesting selling pressure
Entry
76500-77000 on bounce
high
2-4 weeks
4%
Ethereum down 8% breaking major support at 2300. Showing extreme weakness vs BTC. Momentum accelerating lower
On-Chain Signal: ETH/BTC ratio breaking down, staking withdrawals increasing
Entry
2240-2260 on bounce
medium
2-3 weeks
3%
Solana down 4.4% and showing relative weakness. Failed to hold 105 support level. Alt season momentum turning negative
On-Chain Signal: DEX volumes declining, ecosystem activity slowing