Regime
SELECTIVE MOMENTUM - Risk-on with rotation into strength
Bias
Constructive but stock-specific. Follow the leaders, avoid the laggards
Best Setups
New breakouts in GOOGL, XLI, XLP. Crypto bounce plays. Gold momentum continuation
Avoid
Energy weakness (XLE), Tech laggards showing relative weakness
high
4-8 weeks
4-5%
Breaking out to new 52-week high at $344.83 with strong momentum. Leading tech name showing relative strength vs MSFT/META weakness. Volume surge confirms institutional buying.
Catalyst: Q4 earnings beat expectations, AI monetization narrative accelerating
Entry
$344.50 on breakout above $344.83
Invalidation: Close below $340 for 2 consecutive days
high
6-12 weeks
3-4%
Industrials hitting new 52-week high at $167.62 with strong relative strength. Best performing sector ETF showing infrastructure/manufacturing momentum.
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending acceleration, manufacturing renaissance
Entry
$167.70 on new high breakout
Invalidation: Break below 20-day moving average around $162
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Consumer Staples near 52-week high at $84.66. Defensive strength in uncertain environment showing relative outperformance.
Catalyst: Flight to quality defensive names, steady dividend yields
Entry
$84.70 on breakout above $84.66
Invalidation: Close below $82 support
high
4-8 weeks
3%
Breaking down near 52-week low at $81.93. Weak technical structure with lower highs/lows. Severe underperformance vs tech peers.
Catalyst: Competition pressure, subscriber growth concerns, content cost inflation
Entry
$81.50 on break below $81.93
Invalidation: Reclaim above $85 with volume
high
GLD ETF or GC futures
2-4 months
Massive 5.24% breakout with heavy volume. Breaking out of consolidation with strong momentum. Safe haven bid accelerating.
Entry
$4900 level (GC futures)
Key Levels: Support: $4650, Resistance: $5000, $5400
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
6-10 weeks
Weak price action, failing to hold gains. Energy sector XLE showing weakness. Supply/demand imbalance concerns.
Entry
$61.50 on break below current levels
Key Levels: Support: $55.00, Resistance: $65.00, $70.00
medium
4-8 weeks
3-4%
Strong 3.06% bounce off support. Institutional buying at these levels. Momentum turning positive after recent weakness.
On-Chain Signal: Large wallet accumulation, exchange outflows increasing
high
6-10 weeks
4%
Outperforming BTC with 4.89% gain. Leading the crypto bounce with strong relative strength. Staking narrative intact.
On-Chain Signal: ETH2 staking rewards driving demand, DeFi activity picking up
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2%
Massive 22.9% breakout with huge volume. New narrative around hyperliquid protocol gaining traction. Momentum is explosive.
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume surging, protocol adoption accelerating
🚫 NVDA
Down -2.89% in strong market, showing relative weakness. Far from highs at $212
The Trap: Looks cheap but momentum has shifted negative
🚫 TSLA
Declining -2% while market rallies. No momentum catalyst visible
The Trap: Big name recognition but technical structure is weak
🚫 META
Down -1.4% showing weakness vs peers. Failed to hold $716 support
The Trap: AI narrative intact but price action says otherwise
🚫 ORCL
Down -2.75% from highs at $345. Lost momentum after massive run
The Trap: Cloud story strong but extended and now correcting