Regime
Sector rotation environment - flight from growth/tech into value/commodities
Bias
Bearish on expensive tech, bullish on commodities and value
Best Setups
Energy/materials longs, broken tech shorts, commodities momentum
Avoid
Stay away from most tech unless clear breakdowns, avoid trying to catch falling knives in former leaders
high
4-8 weeks
8-10%
Energy sector showing massive relative strength, XLE at/near 52-week high with strong momentum. Oil prices stable, energy stocks breaking out while tech bleeds
Catalyst: Sector rotation into value/energy, geopolitical tensions supporting oil prices
Entry
51.67-51.80 on any pullback to 51.50
Invalidation: Break below 50.00 or oil collapse below $60
medium
3-6 weeks
5-7%
Materials near 52-week high at 51.22, up 2.11% showing relative strength in weak market. Industrial metals benefiting from infrastructure spending
Catalyst: Continued infrastructure investment, commodity supercycle thesis
Invalidation: Break below 49.00 or recession fears escalate
high
6-10 weeks
6-8%
Breaking down hard -7.31%, at 52-week low of 271.02. Massive breakdown from 465 highs, AI disruption fears killing software stocks
Catalyst: AI disrupting creative software, growth deceleration, valuation compression
Entry
271.00-273.00 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim above 290 or major AI partnership announced
medium
8-12 weeks
5-7%
At 52-week low 79.62, massive decline from 134 high. Streaming wars intensifying, subscriber growth stalling, password crackdown backfiring
Catalyst: Competitive pressure, cord-cutting acceleration, content cost inflation
Invalidation: Subscriber beat or major content deal boost
high
GC=F Futures or GLD ETF
2-4 months
Gold ripping +3.09% to 5087, showing massive momentum. Fed pivot expectations, geopolitical tensions, currency debasement fears
Entry
5080-5100 on any dip
Key Levels: Support: 4900, Resistance: 5200, 5400
medium
CL=F Futures or USO ETF
6-10 weeks
Oil up +0.74% showing relative strength. Supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, energy transition creating supply/demand imbalance
Key Levels: Support: 60.00, Resistance: 68.00, 72.00
speculative
4-8 weeks
2-3%
Monero up +4.65% showing strength while BTC/ETH weak. Privacy narrative gaining traction with increasing surveillance concerns
On-Chain Signal: Privacy coin adoption increasing with regulatory scrutiny
medium
6-12 weeks
4-6%
Bitcoin down -2.24%, breaking down from recent highs. ETF euphoria fading, macro headwinds, institutional profit-taking
On-Chain Signal: Exchange inflows increasing, long liquidations accelerating
Entry
76500-77000 on any bounce
high
4-8 weeks
5-7%
Solana down -5.17%, massively underperforming. Down -22% weekly, breaking key support levels. Ecosystem concerns mounting
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL declining, network activity dropping
Entry
98-102 on any bounce