Regime
Risk-off momentum continuation - tech selling, flight to quality
Bias
Bearish momentum in growth/tech, selective strength in defensive/value
Best Setups
Short broken tech names, long relative strength plays like NFLX, energy
Avoid
Broad tech weakness - only play the cleanest breakdowns/breakouts
high
2-3 weeks
3-4%
Breaking above resistance at $80.87 with strong volume. Only stock showing green in sea of red tech names - massive relative strength
Catalyst: Streaming strength, potential subscriber beat in next earnings
Entry
$81.50 breakout above today's high
Invalidation: Close below $79.00 - breaks momentum structure
medium
3-4 weeks
2-3%
Breaking below $189.97 near 52-week lows of $187.28. Heavy selling volume and weak relative performance
Catalyst: Continued SaaS multiple compression, potential guidance cuts
Invalidation: Reclaim $192+ with volume
high
4-6 weeks
4%
Massive breakdown from $146.67 to $136.48 on huge volume. Breaking critical support at $140
Catalyst: Cloud competition concerns, AI capex questions
Entry
$135.00 on any bounce
Invalidation: Reclaim $145+ closes breakdown thesis
medium
3-4 weeks
2%
Testing 52-week lows at $264.04. Breaking below would confirm major trend change
Catalyst: AI disruption to creative software, subscription fatigue
Invalidation: Reclaim $275+ negates breakdown
high
2-3 weeks
3%
Major breakdown from $70K+ to $65K. Failed to hold key support at $67K. Massive selling volume
On-Chain Signal: Long liquidations cascading, exchange inflows increasing
high
2-3 weeks
2%
Even weaker than BTC, breaking $1900 support. Altcoin weakness accelerating
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL declining, staking outflows
speculative
2-3 weeks
1%
Only major crypto showing strength +17% over 7 days. Breaking above $34
On-Chain Signal: Strong DEX volume, new protocol adoption