Pure Trade Ideas
2026-02-08 06:48
Regime
Risk-on momentum breakout. Tech/semis leading, industrials breaking out, defensive weakness
Bias
Bullish on momentum names, bearish on laggards and broken stories
Best Setups
AI/semiconductor breakouts, sector rotation into cyclicals, momentum continuation plays
Avoid
Communication Services showing weakness, avoid 'value traps' in downtrending names
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
NVDA
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 4-6% of portfolio
Monster +7.9% breakout on massive volume (223M vs avg ~50M). Price action screams institutional accumulation after AI earnings season positioning
Catalyst: Breaking above previous resistance at $180, AI infrastructure demand cycle accelerating
Entry
$185-187 on any pullback or immediate at market
Target
$210 (previous 52-week high test)
Stop
$172 (below prior consolidation)
R:R
2.2:1
Invalidation: Close below $175 on heavy volume
AMD
LONG
high 3-6 weeks 3-4% of portfolio
Explosive +8.3% move on 42M volume. Following NVDA's AI momentum, semiconductor rotation in full swing
Catalyst: Chip momentum, potential earnings guidance raise cycle
Entry
$208-212 range
Target
$250 (prior resistance zone)
Stop
$190 (gap fill protection)
R:R
2.3:1
Invalidation: Failed hold above $200 psychological level
XLI
LONG
medium 1-3 months 2-3% of portfolio
Industrials ETF hitting NEW 52-week high at $173.39. Sector rotation into cyclicals with infrastructure spending theme
Catalyst: Economic acceleration, infrastructure bills, manufacturing renaissance
Entry
$173.50+ on breakout continuation
Target
$185-190
Stop
$168 (gap protection)
R:R
2.1:1
Invalidation: Failure to hold new highs, close below $170
AMZN
SHORT
medium 2-4 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
Ugly -5.6% breakdown on monster volume (179M). Breaking key $215 support level with conviction
Catalyst: Cloud growth concerns, consumer spending slowdown, margin pressure
Entry
$210 or lower on any bounce to $215-220
Target
$185 (next major support)
Stop
$225 (reclaim of breakdown level)
R:R
1.7:1
Invalidation: Reclaim and hold above $220
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
LONG
high GLD ETF or GC futures 1-2 months
Strong +1.8% momentum breakout above $4900. Fed pivot expectations and geopolitical tensions driving safe haven flow
Entry
$4980-5000 on any minor pullback
Target
$5300-5400 (test of prior highs)
Stop
$4800 (breakdown of momentum)
R:R
2.2:1
Key Levels: Resistance: $5200, $5400 | Support: $4850, $4700
Crude Oil
LONG
medium USO ETF or CL futures 6-8 weeks
Steady grind higher, holding above $63. Energy sector strength (XLE near highs) confirming demand story
Entry
$63.50-64.00
Target
$72-75 (test 52-week high zone)
Stop
$60 (below key support)
R:R
2.8:1
Key Levels: Resistance: $68, $72 | Support: $61, $58
₿

Crypto Ideas

2 ideas
BTC
SHORT
medium 2-6 weeks 1-2% of portfolio
Failed to hold $70k, showing weakness vs traditional risk assets. Down -1.1% while stocks surge - concerning divergence
On-Chain Signal: Institutional flow data showing distribution patterns
Entry
$69000 or lower on any bounce to $70500-71000
Target
$62000-64000 (major support zone)
Stop
$72500 (reclaim of $70k+ zone)
R:R
2.1:1
SOL
LONG
speculative 2-4 weeks 1-2% of portfolio
Showing relative strength in crypto weakness. Volume picking up, trending searches suggest retail interest building
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL on Solana showing growth
Entry
$87-89 on any dip
Target
$105-110
Stop
$80 (key psychological level)
R:R
2.4:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
NVDA
high
Long Call Spread | Buy $185 Call / Sell $200 Call | March 2026 expiry
Leverage the momentum breakout with defined risk. Spread caps upside but reduces premium decay
Max Risk
$7-8 per spread
Max Reward
$15 per spread (at $200+)
Breakeven
$192-193
Ideal Scenario: NVDA continues to $195-205 by March
XLI
medium
Long Call | $175 Call | April 2026
Play the sector breakout with time for infrastructure theme to develop
Max Risk
$4-5 per contract
Max Reward
Unlimited above $180
Breakeven
$179-180
Ideal Scenario: Industrials continue sector rotation strength
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
high 1:1 dollar weighted 3-6 weeks
LONG
NVDA
vs
SHORT
AMZN
AI momentum leader vs. cloud/e-commerce breakdown. Clear strength vs weakness divergence
Entry Spread
NVDA $185 / AMZN $210 = -$25
Target Spread
$0 to +$25 (NVDA outperforms)
Stop Spread
-$40 (if momentum reverses)
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 1-2 months
LONG
XLI
vs
SHORT
XLC
Industrials breakout vs Communication Services weakness. Sector rotation from growth to cyclicals
Entry Spread
XLI $173 / XLC $116 = +$57
Target Spread
+$70 (10+ point spread expansion)
Stop Spread
+$50 (if rotation reverses)
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 GOOGL
Broken momentum, down -2.5% on volume while tech rallies. No edge in a stock showing relative weakness
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' vs other tech but momentum is clearly broken
🚫 META
Failed to participate in today's tech surge, down -1.3%. Institutional distribution likely
The Trap: Still near highs but action suggests smart money selling
🚫 CRM
Barely up +0.7% near 52-week lows while sector rockets. No momentum to ride
The Trap: 'Value' play in a momentum market - avoid boring stocks