Regime
Risk-on momentum environment with sector rotation into tech and industrials
Bias
Bullish with momentum favoring growth names and breakouts
Best Setups
Semiconductor breakouts, industrial strength, gold momentum. Focus on 52-week high makers with volume.
Avoid
Communications (XLC weakness), avoid laggards in strong sectors, avoid value traps
high
2-4 weeks
3-5% of portfolio
Classic momentum breakout - up 7.9% with massive volume (231M vs avg ~50M). Breaking through key resistance at $185, showing institutional accumulation. AI trade resuming with strength.
Catalyst: Q4 earnings catalyst approaching, AI infrastructure spending accelerating
Entry
$186-188 on any pullback or break above $190
Target
$210 (prior 52-week high)
Stop
$175 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Close below $175 or broad tech sector breakdown
high
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Explosive breakout +8.3% on heavy volume. Breaking out of multi-month base, showing relative strength vs semis. Following NVDA's momentum in AI chip space.
Catalyst: Riding AI chip momentum, potential data center wins
Entry
$209-212 on consolidation
Target
$240 (50% retracement to highs)
Stop
$190 (back in prior range)
Invalidation: Break below $190 or semiconductor weakness
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Making new 52-week highs at $173.39, up 2.9%. Industrial strength indicates economic optimism and infrastructure spending. Clean breakout pattern.
Catalyst: Infrastructure spending, manufacturing resurgence
Invalidation: Break below $165 or economic data deterioration
medium
2-6 weeks
2% of portfolio
Massive breakdown -5.5% on huge volume (179M). Breaking key support around $210. Weak relative performance vs tech peers. Distribution pattern forming.
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment, cloud growth concerns, retail headwinds
Entry
$208-212 on any bounce
Target
$180 (next major support)
Stop
$225 (back above breakdown)
Invalidation: Reclaim $225 or broad tech recovery
high
GLD ETF or GC futures
4-8 weeks
Strong momentum breakout +1.6% to $5058. Breaking out of consolidation with volume. Flight to safety bid intact, dollar weakness supporting.
Target
$5300 (next major resistance)
Stop
$4900 (below breakout zone)
Key Levels: Support: $4900, Resistance: $5300, $5586 (52w high)
medium
ETF
3-6 weeks
Breaking down -1.1% below $63. Showing weakness despite energy sector strength. Supply concerns easing, demand questions mounting.
Entry
$62-64 on any bounce
Target
$58 (next support)
Stop
$67 (above recent highs)
Key Levels: Resistance: $67, $70, Support: $58, $55