Pure Trade Ideas
2026-02-18 07:01
Regime
Mixed with sector rotation - Tech showing weakness while Financials/REITs show strength
Bias
Cautiously bullish on momentum names, selective short opportunities in broken tech
Best Setups
Individual stock momentum plays (AAPL long, ORCL short), sector rotation (XLF strength)
Avoid
Broad tech weakness, avoid catching falling software knives (CRM, ADBE, ORCL)
📈

Stock Ideas

5 ideas
AAPL
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 3-5% of portfolio
Breaking out with massive volume (58M vs ~30M avg), up 3.2% showing relative strength while tech overall flat. Price action suggesting institutional accumulation
Catalyst: Earnings momentum + AI narrative building into product cycle
Entry
264.00 on any pullback or 266.50 break of resistance
Target
280.00 (test of 52-week high zone)
Stop
255.00 (below previous close support)
R:R
3:1
Invalidation: Break below 250 kills momentum structure
XLF
LONG
medium 3-6 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
Financials showing relative strength vs broad market, up 1.06% with strong volume (54M). Sector rotation into value/cyclicals
Catalyst: Rate environment stabilizing, banking earnings strength
Entry
52.50 on any early weakness
Target
55.50 (approaching 52-week high)
Stop
50.80
R:R
2:1
Invalidation: Break below 50.00 major support
XLRE
LONG
medium 4-8 weeks 2% of portfolio
REITs at/near 52-week highs with momentum, up 1.01%. Beneficiary of rate cycle positioning
Catalyst: Defensive rotation + yield appeal in uncertain environment
Entry
44.00 on any small dip
Target
46.50
Stop
42.80
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Break below 42.00 negates breakout
ORCL
SHORT
high 2-4 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
Massive breakdown -3.85% on heavy volume, showing severe relative weakness vs sector. Technical damage done
Catalyst: Cloud competition intensifying, breaking key support levels
Entry
153.00 on any bounce to resistance
Target
140.00 (next major support)
Stop
158.00 (back above breakdown level)
R:R
2.6:1
Invalidation: Reclaim above 160 negates breakdown
CRM
SHORT
medium 2-3 weeks 2% of portfolio
Breaking down -2.86% near 52-week lows (180.24), showing persistent weakness in enterprise software
Catalyst: SaaS multiple compression + growth concerns
Entry
183.00 on any relief bounce
Target
175.00 (test of 52-week low)
Stop
188.00
R:R
2:1
Invalidation: Strong bounce above 190 changes structure
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
LONG
high GLD ETF 1-2 months
Strong breakout +0.97% with solid momentum, still well below 52-week highs giving runway
Entry
4950 level on futures (GLD ~495)
Target
5200 (GLD ~520)
Stop
4800 (GLD ~480)
R:R
1.7:1
Key Levels: 5000 resistance, 4900 support, 5200 major target
Crude Oil
LONG
medium USO ETF or CL futures 3-6 weeks
Small but consistent gains +0.37%, holding above mid-range. Energy sector showing relative strength signs
Entry
62.80 on any small dip
Target
67.00 (next resistance zone)
Stop
60.50
R:R
1.8:1
Key Levels: 63.50 resistance, 61.00 support, 67.00 major target
₿

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
ETH
LONG
medium 2-4 weeks 2-3% of portfolio
Showing relative strength vs BTC, up 1.02% while BTC down -0.87%. Leading the bounce off lows
On-Chain Signal: ETH showing better momentum than BTC in recent sessions
Entry
2000 on any small pullback
Target
2200 (next major resistance)
Stop
1900
R:R
2:1
DOGE
LONG
speculative 1-3 weeks 1% of portfolio (high risk)
Up 1.1% showing momentum, 7-day +10.15% suggests meme revival. High beta play on crypto recovery
On-Chain Signal: Social sentiment and volume picking up
Entry
0.1015 on slight dip
Target
0.1200
Stop
0.0950
R:R
2.8:1
ZEC
LONG
medium 2-4 weeks 1-2% of portfolio
Monster 7-day performance +23.96%, maintaining momentum with +0.73% today. Privacy coin narrative building
On-Chain Signal: Strong week-over-week momentum, rank #23 showing institutional interest
Entry
295 on any pullback
Target
350
Stop
275
R:R
2.75:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
AAPL
high
Long Call | 270 | March 2026
Leverage the breakout momentum with defined risk. March gives time for earnings and product cycle
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$8-12)
Max Reward
Unlimited above breakeven
Breakeven
~282 (strike + premium)
Ideal Scenario: AAPL continues momentum to 280-290 zone
ORCL
high
Long Put | 150 | April 2026
Capitalize on breakdown with leverage. April expiry gives time for continued weakness
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$6-8)
Max Reward
Strike minus premium if ORCL goes to zero
Breakeven
~142 (strike - premium)
Ideal Scenario: ORCL continues slide to 140 or lower
⚖️

Pairs Trades

2 pairs
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 4-8 weeks
LONG
XLF
vs
SHORT
XLK
Value rotation - Financials showing strength (+1.06%) while Tech flat (-0.06%). Sector rotation thesis
Entry Spread
XLF outperforming by 1.12%
Target Spread
3-4% outperformance
Stop Spread
If XLK outperforms by 2%
medium 1:1 dollar weighted 3-6 weeks
LONG
AAPL
vs
SHORT
MSFT
AAPL showing clear momentum (+3.17%) vs MSFT weakness (-1.11%). Relative strength divergence
Entry Spread
AAPL outperforming by 4.28%
Target Spread
6-8% relative outperformance
Stop Spread
If MSFT outperforms by 2%
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 ADBE
Down -1.33% and near 52-week lows. Classic falling knife - looks cheap but momentum broken
The Trap: P/E looks attractive but technical damage severe, avoid catching this decline
🚫 NFLX
Trading near 52-week lows with minimal bounce. Streaming competition intensifying
The Trap: Flat performance today (+0.17%) might look like bottoming but lack of conviction volume
🚫 META
Flat/slightly negative despite being off highs. No clear momentum in either direction
The Trap: Might look like consolidation but no clear breakout setup yet