Regime
Risk-on momentum environment with sector rotation accelerating
Bias
Bullish with selectivity - tech leadership continuing, energy emerging, defensives weak
Best Setups
Breakouts in AI/tech names, energy sector rotation plays, crypto strength
Avoid
Utilities, consumer staples, and beaten down value traps without catalysts
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Testing breakout above $185 with massive volume (159M vs avg ~40M). Relative strength vs QQQ remains strong. AI trade momentum continuing.
Catalyst: March GTC conference approaching, potential new chip announcements
Entry
$188-190 on breakout confirmation above recent highs
Target
$205-212 (prior 52-week high)
Stop
$180 - below recent consolidation
Invalidation: Break below $175 or AI sentiment shifts negative
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Strong momentum with +1.8% move on heavy volume. Breaking above $200 resistance with conviction. AWS growth story intact.
Catalyst: Cloud earnings momentum, potential AI services expansion
Entry
$205-207 on pullback to breakout level
Stop
$195 - below breakout level
Invalidation: Failure to hold above $200 or tech sector weakness
high
4-8 weeks
2% of portfolio
Severe relative weakness vs semiconductors. Down -1.6% while NVDA up +1.6%. Breaking critical $45 support with volume.
Catalyst: Continued market share loss to AMD/NVDA, fab struggles
Entry
$44.50-45 on any bounce to resistance
Stop
$47 - above broken support turned resistance
Invalidation: Reclaim of $47 or major foundry deal announced
medium
6-10 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Energy sector breaking out near 52-week highs at $54.78. Oil momentum building, sector rotation into commodities.
Catalyst: Geopolitical tensions, summer driving season approaching
Entry
$55.25 on breakout above 52-week high
Stop
$52 - below recent support
Invalidation: Oil price collapse below $60 or recession fears spike
high
GLD ETF or GC futures
2-3 months
Gold showing momentum at $5033, holding well above $5000. Fed pivot expectations building, dollar weakness emerging.
Entry
$5025-5050 on any dip
Stop
$4900 - below round number support
Key Levels: Support: $4950, $5000 | Resistance: $5200, $5400
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
4-8 weeks
Oil building base above $65, showing relative strength. Supply concerns growing, demand steady.
Entry
$65.50-66 on momentum continuation
Stop
$62 - below recent lows
Key Levels: Support: $62, $60 | Resistance: $68, $72
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3% allocation
Bitcoin holding above $67K despite recent weakness. Institutional flow continues, ETF demand solid. Technical base forming.
On-Chain Signal: Exchange outflows continuing, long-term holders accumulating
Entry
$67500-68000 on strength above current level
Stop
$64000 - below key support
high
2-4 weeks
2% allocation
Solana showing strong relative strength at $82, outperforming ETH. Ecosystem growth accelerating, DeFi TVL rising.
On-Chain Signal: Network activity increasing, validator count growing
Entry
$83-85 on momentum continuation