Regime
Risk-on momentum market with sector rotation accelerating
Bias
BULLISH with selectivity - favor breakouts over breakdowns
Best Setups
Tech momentum names breaking to new highs, commodity strength plays
Avoid
Defensive plays, dividend traps, anything in long-term downtrends
high
3-6 weeks
4-5% of portfolio
Strong 4% breakout on massive volume (52M vs avg ~30M). Price breaking above key resistance at $310. Tech momentum leader with AI narrative intact.
Catalyst: AI earnings beat potential, search revenue acceleration, cloud growth
Entry
$315.50 on pullback to breakout level
Target
$349.00 (52-week high retest)
Stop
$302.00 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Close below $310 for 2 days kills momentum
medium
4-8 weeks
3% of portfolio
Industrials hitting new 52-week highs at $177.23. Infrastructure spending cycle, manufacturing renaissance thesis playing out.
Catalyst: Infrastructure bill impact, manufacturing reshoring trend
Entry
$177.50-178.00 on any small pullback
Target
$185.00 (next resistance)
Stop
$172.00 (below recent consolidation)
Invalidation: Break below $175 ends the breakout
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
REITs breaking to new highs at $43.56, strong momentum with rate cut expectations. Volume surge confirms breakout.
Catalyst: Rate cut cycle beginning, commercial real estate recovery
Entry
$43.70-44.00 on any dip
Target
$46.50 (measured move)
Stop
$41.80 (below breakout zone)
Invalidation: Close below $42.50 breaks the pattern
high
3-6 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Massive 5.4% breakdown from $345 highs. Breaking key support at $150. Cloud competition intensifying, AI hype fading.
Catalyst: Earnings disappointment, cloud growth slowing, competition from hyperscalers
Entry
$147.50-148.00 on any bounce
Target
$125.00 (next major support)
Stop
$158.00 (above breakdown zone)
Invalidation: Reclaim above $156 kills the breakdown
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Failing at resistance, down 1.6% on heavy volume. Weak relative to NVDA, AI chip competition heating up.
Catalyst: Intel competition, NVDA dominance, data center share loss
Entry
$199.00-200.00 on any bounce
Target
$175.00 (gap fill)
Stop
$210.00 (above recent highs)
Invalidation: Break above $210 shows strength returning
medium
2-6 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Bitcoin consolidating above $67K support, institutional adoption continuing, Trump administration crypto-friendly.
On-Chain Signal: ETF inflows resuming, long-term holder accumulation
Target
$75,000 (next resistance)
Stop
$64,000 (key support break)
high
3-8 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Solana showing relative strength +1.3%, strong DeFi ecosystem, meme coin activity driving fees.
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume increasing, validator rewards growing
Entry
$84.00-86.00 on any dip
Target
$110.00 (previous resistance)
Stop
$78.00 (below key support)