Regime
MOMENTUM CONTINUATION - Strong stocks getting stronger, weak stocks getting weaker
Bias
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH on select momentum names, BEARISH on broken techs and crypto
Best Setups
Tech breakouts (GOOGL), sector leadership (XLI), and breakdown continuation plays (ORCL, crypto)
Avoid
Avoid dead money stocks near lows without catalysts. Crypto showing persistent weakness.
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Strong momentum continuation after +4% breakout on massive volume (53M vs avg ~30M). Breaking above $310 resistance with conviction, showing relative strength vs tech peers
Catalyst: AI infrastructure spending acceleration, search monetization improvements, potential Cloud momentum
Entry
$315.50 on any pullback or $318 breakout confirmation
Target
$340 (8% move targeting next resistance)
Stop
$305 (below breakout level)
Invalidation: Close below $305 or tech sector rotation out
medium
1-3 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Industrials sector making new 52-week highs at $177.23, near ATH of $178.22. Strong infrastructure spending theme intact
Catalyst: Infrastructure bill implementation, manufacturing reshoring trends
Entry
$177.50-178.00 on breakout above ATH
Target
$185 (4% move to next technical level)
Stop
$173 (below recent support)
Invalidation: Breakdown below $173 or economic data deterioration
high
3-6 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Massive -5.4% breakdown from $156 to $148, breaking key support with volume. Down 57% from highs, showing persistent weakness
Catalyst: Cloud competition intensifying, AI spending going elsewhere, database modernization headwinds
Entry
$147-149 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$130 (next major support level)
Stop
$155 (back above breakdown level)
Invalidation: Reclaim of $155 or sector rotation into value
medium
2-4 weeks
2% of portfolio
Failed at $203 resistance, now showing weakness at $200. Down 25% from highs, underperforming NVDA significantly
Catalyst: AI chip competition, data center share loss to NVDA, PC market weakness
Entry
$199-201 on any bounce
Target
$185 (gap fill and support level)
Stop
$208 (above recent highs)
Invalidation: Breakout above $210 or sector strength rotation
high
GLD ETF or Gold Futures
4-8 weeks
Strong +1.76% breakout in gold to $5170, showing momentum after consolidation. Central bank buying, geopolitical tensions supporting
Entry
$5160-5180 level on any pullback
Target
$5400 (next resistance level)
Stop
$5050 (below recent lows)
Key Levels: Support: $5080, $5050. Resistance: $5250, $5400
medium
ETF
3-6 weeks
Oil breaking down -1.19% to $65.69, showing weakness below $67 resistance. Supply concerns and demand destruction narrative intact
Entry
$66-67 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$60 (next support level)
Stop
$70 (above recent highs)
Key Levels: Resistance: $67, $70. Support: $63, $60
high
2-6 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Bitcoin breaking down -3.26% to $65,781, showing weakness after failing at $68K. Down 48% from ATH, momentum clearly negative
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holder distribution, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$66,500-67,500 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$58,000 (next major support)
Stop
$70,000 (above recent highs)
medium
3-8 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Ethereum down -4.82% to $1,880, showing even worse performance than BTC. 62% down from ATH, breaking key support levels
On-Chain Signal: ETH staking unlock pressure, DeFi TVL declining
Entry
$1,900-1,950 on bounces
Target
$1,650 (next support zone)
Stop
$2,050 (above breakdown level)
speculative
2-4 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Solana down -7.19% showing major weakness, 73% off ATH. Ecosystem hype cooling, meme coin rotation slowing
On-Chain Signal: Declining DEX volumes, meme coin speculation cooling
Target
$65 (next support)
Stop
$88 (above recent resistance)