Pure Trade Ideas
2026-02-24 07:00
Regime
Risk-off rotation from growth to defensive sectors. Tech getting obliterated while utilities, healthcare, energy show relative strength
Bias
Bearish growth/tech, bullish defensives. Momentum clearly down in risk assets
Best Setups
Long defensive sectors breaking to new highs (XLV, XLE), short tech names breaking 52w lows (NFLX, CRM)
Avoid
Tech (XLK), Communication Services (XLC), high-beta growth names. Don't try to catch falling knives
📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas
XLV
LONG
high 2-4 weeks 3-5%
Healthcare sector showing relative strength - near 52w high at 158.54 vs 160.59, up 1.7% while tech gets hammered. Defensive rotation in play
Catalyst: Continued defensive rotation as growth stocks weaken
Entry
158.80-159.20 on pullback or break above 160.70
Target
165.00
Stop
156.50
R:R
2.5:1
Invalidation: Break below 156 or broad market capitulation
XLE
LONG
medium 3-6 weeks 2-3%
Energy showing momentum - up 0.49% to 55.15, approaching 52w high of 55.93. Oil strength at $66.74 supports
Catalyst: Break above 55.93 resistance triggers momentum buying
Entry
56.00 on break above resistance
Target
59.00
Stop
54.50
R:R
2:1
Invalidation: Oil breaks below $65 or fails at 55.93 resistance
NFLX
SHORT
high 2-4 weeks 2-3%
Breaking down at 76.02, near 52w low of 75.01. Volume spike on weakness. Tech selloff accelerating
Catalyst: Break below 75.01 triggers stop losses and momentum selling
Entry
74.80 on break below 75.01
Target
68.00
Stop
78.50
R:R
1.8:1
Invalidation: Reclaim above 78.50 or broad market reversal
CRM
SHORT
medium 2-3 weeks 2%
Salesforce at 178.16, dangerously close to 52w low of 174.57. Down 3.8% with heavy volume. Weak relative strength vs market
Catalyst: Break of 174.57 support level
Entry
174.00 on break of support
Target
165.00
Stop
181.00
R:R
1.3:1
Invalidation: Hold above 174.57 or gap fill back to 185+
🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas
Gold
SHORT
medium GLD ETF or Gold Futures 2-4 weeks
Gold breaking down from 5193, down 0.6%. Failed to hold above 5200. Dollar strength pressuring metals
Entry
5180 or GLD equivalent
Target
5000
Stop
5250
R:R
2.6:1
Key Levels: Support at 5000, resistance at 5250
Crude Oil
LONG
speculative USO ETF or CL Futures 3-5 weeks
Oil showing momentum at $66.74, up 0.65%. XLE confirming strength. Still well below 52w high of $78.4
Entry
$67.00
Target
$72.00
Stop
$65.50
R:R
3.3:1
Key Levels: Resistance at $70, support at $65
₿

Crypto Ideas

3 ideas
BTC
SHORT
high 1-3 weeks 2-3%
Bitcoin breaking down at $63,042, down 4.1%. Failed to hold $65k. Volume spike confirms selling pressure. Risk-off mode
On-Chain Signal: High volume selling, approaching next support zone
Entry
$62,500
Target
$58,000
Stop
$65,500
R:R
1.5:1
ETH
SHORT
high 1-3 weeks 2%
Ethereum at $1,820, down 3.1%. Showing relative weakness vs BTC. Tech sector carnage spilling into crypto
On-Chain Signal: ETH/BTC ratio weakening, confirming alt weakness
Entry
$1,810
Target
$1,650
Stop
$1,900
R:R
1.8:1
SOL
SHORT
medium 1-2 weeks 1-2%
Solana at $76.63, down 11.3% weekly. Breaking key support levels. Alt season clearly over
On-Chain Signal: SOL ecosystem showing stress, TVL declining
Entry
$76.00
Target
$68.00
Stop
$82.00
R:R
1.3:1
📊

Options Plays

2 plays
NFLX
high
Long Put | $72 | March 21, 2026
Leverage the breakdown below 52w lows. Options cheaper than shorting stock with defined risk
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$3-4)
Max Reward
Substantial if breaks to $65
Breakeven
Strike minus premium
Ideal Scenario: Continued tech selloff drives NFLX to $65-68
XLV
medium
Long Call | $162 | April 18, 2026
Leverage defensive rotation into healthcare. Calls cheaper than stock position
Max Risk
Premium paid (~$2-3)
Max Reward
Open-ended upside if rotation continues
Breakeven
Strike plus premium
Ideal Scenario: Healthcare continues outperforming, breaks to new highs
⚖️

Pairs Trades

1 pairs
high 1:1 dollar weighted 4-8 weeks
LONG
XLV
vs
SHORT
XLK
Classic defensive rotation - healthcare showing strength while tech implodes. Spread should widen
Entry Spread
XLV at 158.54, XLK at 138.52 (spread ~20 points)
Target Spread
25+ points
Stop Spread
15 points
🚫

Avoid These

🚫 ADBE
At $246.68, just $2 above 52w low of $244.8. Looks 'cheap' but in clear downtrend
The Trap: Tempting to buy 'discount' Adobe, but momentum is clearly down
🚫 ORCL
Down 4.6% to $141.31. Massive gap from 52w high of $345.72. Knife falling
The Trap: Oracle looks oversold but no signs of bottoming yet
🚫 MSFT
Down 3.2% to $384.47. Still far from 52w low but in clear distribution phase
The Trap: MSFT always bounces - not this time in this environment