Regime
Risk-on momentum with sector rotation to cyclicals and tech breakouts
Bias
BULLISH - Major indices at/near highs, VIX down 7%, breadth improving
Best Setups
Semiconductor momentum plays, industrial breakouts, crypto continuation
Avoid
Defensive healthcare, utilities (despite recent strength), communication services lagging
high
4-8 weeks
4-5% of portfolio
Explosive 8.8% gap up on massive volume (80M vs avg 40M), breaking above $210 resistance. AI momentum accelerating, strong relative strength vs semis
Catalyst: Data center AI demand surge, potential earnings guidance raise, NVDA halo effect
Entry
$214-216 on any pullback, or breakout above $217
Target
$267 (52-week high retest)
Invalidation: Close below $200 or general semi weakness
medium
6-10 weeks
3% of portfolio
5.7% surge on 96M volume, attempting major reversal from $17 lows. Breaking multi-month downtrend, could be foundry momentum
Catalyst: Foundry business validation, government chip act funding, turnaround story
Entry
$46.50-47.50 above today's high
Target
$54.60 (52-week high)
Invalidation: Failed breakout, back below $44
high
3-6 weeks
5% of portfolio
2.4% gain on 57M volume, holding above $400 psychological level. Robotaxi/FSD momentum building, approaching 52-week highs
Catalyst: FSD updates, robotaxi deployment news, Trump administration EV policy clarity
Entry
$410-415 on strength
Target
$498 (52-week high)
Stop
$385 (20-day MA break)
Invalidation: Break below $380 or EV sector rotation
medium
8-12 weeks
3% of portfolio
Industrials ETF at new highs $176.98, infrastructure spending theme intact, sector leadership rotation
Catalyst: Infrastructure bill deployment, manufacturing reshoring, defense spending
Entry
$177-178 on breakout above $178.22
Target
$195 (next resistance)
Stop
$170 (previous resistance becomes support)
Invalidation: Break below $172 or recession fears
medium
GLD ETF or GC futures
2-3 months
0.65% gain to $5210, central bank buying continues, geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness setup
Entry
$5200-5220 on any dip
Target
$5586 (52-week high retest)
Stop
$5050 (major support)
Key Levels: Support: $5100, $5000 | Resistance: $5300, $5586
high
Direct BTC or GBTC
6-8 weeks
2.97% surge to $64,891, reclaiming momentum after consolidation. Institutional adoption accelerating
Entry
$64,500-65,500 on strength
Target
$78,000 (previous resistance)
Stop
$58,000 (major support)
Key Levels: Support: $60,000, $58,000 | Resistance: $70,000, $78,000
high
4-6 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
6.4% pump, strongest performer among majors. Ecosystem growth, meme coin activity, technical breakout setup
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume increasing, ecosystem TVL growing
Entry
$82-84 on continuation
Target
$120 (next major resistance)
medium
6-8 weeks
4% of portfolio
3.6% gain to $1,885, following BTC higher. ETF flows improving, Layer 2 adoption accelerating
On-Chain Signal: Staking yields stabilizing, network usage increasing
Target
$2,400 (major resistance)
speculative
2-4 weeks
2% of portfolio
Down 8.5% this week despite 2.5% daily bounce. Losing momentum from highs, profit-taking phase
On-Chain Signal: Token unlock schedule creating selling pressure
Entry
$27.50-28.00 on any rally
Target
$20 (next support)
Stop
$32 (above resistance)
🚫 GOOGL
Declining -0.19%, weak relative performance vs tech peers, regulatory overhang
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' vs AAPL/MSFT but momentum is broken
🚫 META
Only +0.32% in strong tech day, far from highs, losing social media leadership
The Trap: AI narrative intact but stock action suggests distribution
🚫 XLV
Healthcare down -0.42% while market rallies, defensive rotation ending
The Trap: Dividend yield attractive but momentum clearly broken