Regime
Tech momentum revival with sector rotation into growth. VIX down 8.3% suggests risk-on environment
Bias
Selectively bullish on momentum names, bearish on laggards showing distribution
Best Setups
High-volume breakouts in beaten-down growth names (NFLX, INTC). Crypto momentum plays
Avoid
Anything consolidating or in downtrends. Wait for clear momentum signals
high
3-6 weeks
3-4%
Breaking out of 7-week base with massive volume (67.5M vs avg ~20M). +6% gap up shows institutional accumulation. Near 52-week lows creating coiled spring effect
Catalyst: Streaming wars consolidation, cost-cutting showing results, potential subscriber beat
Entry
$83.50 on pullback to breakout level
Target
$95.00 (measured move from base)
Stop
$79.50 (below breakout low)
Invalidation: Close below $79 for 2 consecutive days
high
4-8 weeks
4-5%
Strong momentum continuation +2.25% with volume confirmation. Relative strength vs QQQ outstanding. Still 18% below 52-week highs = runway
Catalyst: AI spending efficiency, Threads monetization, Reality Labs progress
Entry
$655-660 on any dip
Target
$720 (gap fill to previous resistance)
Stop
$625 (21-day EMA support)
Invalidation: Break below 21-day EMA with volume
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3%
Momentum building +2% with huge volume (53M). Consolidating in upper third of range. Musk factor + EV recovery narrative
Catalyst: Q1 deliveries, FSD progress, energy storage growth
Entry
$420 on current levels
Target
$465 (test of recent highs)
Stop
$395 (20-day support)
Invalidation: Break below $390 support zone
medium
3-5 weeks
2%
Weak action -1.4% while semis rally. Down 21% from highs showing distribution. Heavy volume on decline suggests institutional selling
Catalyst: AI chip competition intensifying, Intel recovery threat, margin pressure
Entry
$208-210 on any bounce
Target
$185 (next support level)
Invalidation: Reclaim $220 with volume
speculative
4-6 weeks
1-2%
Massive volume breakout (74.9M vs avg ~30M). +1.6% while breaking multi-month resistance. Turnaround story gaining traction
Catalyst: Foundry business progress, government support, cost cuts showing results
Entry
$47.25 on current momentum
Target
$52 (next resistance zone)
Stop
$44.50 (breakout support)
Invalidation: Close back below $45
medium
GLD ETF
6-10 weeks
Failed at $5586 highs, now showing weakness -0.26%. Strong dollar + higher rates headwind. Technical breakdown in progress
Entry
$520 GLD (current levels)
Target
$495 GLD (next support)
Stop
$535 GLD (recent highs)
Key Levels: Support at $495, resistance at $535
medium
USO ETF
4-8 weeks
Holding above $65 support, showing relative strength vs other commodities. Geopolitical premium intact, supply constraints
Target
$72.00 (next resistance)
Stop
$62.00 (key support)
Key Levels: $62 major support, $72 resistance
high
BTC Direct
4-8 weeks
Strong momentum +5.07% with massive volume. Breaking above $68K resistance. Institutional flows accelerating, ETF demand strong
Target
$78,000 (next major resistance)
Stop
$64,500 (recent support)
Key Levels: $64.5K support, $72K intermediate target
high
6-10 weeks
3-4%
Explosive +9.45% breakout with volume. Leading BTC higher. Staking yields + upcoming upgrades driving demand
On-Chain Signal: ETH staking ratio increasing, exchange outflows positive
Target
$2,400 (measured move)
Stop
$1,920 (recent lows)
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3%
Strong +7.53% move showing momentum. Ecosystem growth, meme coin activity driving usage. Breaking resistance
On-Chain Signal: DEX volume increasing, NFT activity robust
Target
$105 (next resistance)
Stop
$81 (recent support)
medium
2-4 weeks
1-2%
Strong momentum +6.4% on regulatory clarity hopes. Ripple partnerships expanding, payments adoption growing
On-Chain Signal: Large wallet accumulation patterns visible
Target
$1.65 (next resistance)
Stop
$1.32 (support level)
Long April $85 Calls | $85 | April 18, 2026
Massive volume breakout needs leveraged exposure. Options cheaper than stock on vol compression
Max Risk
$4.50 per contract
Max Reward
Unlimited above $89.50
Ideal Scenario: Move to $95+ within 6-8 weeks
Long March $670/$690 Call Spread | $670/$690 | March 21, 2026
Defined risk way to play momentum continuation. Reduces cost vs naked calls
Max Risk
$8.00 per spread
Max Reward
$12.00 per spread
Ideal Scenario: Close above $690 by expiration
Long April $200 Puts | $200 | April 18, 2026
Leveraged downside play on semiconductor weakness. High implied vol but justified by breakdown
Max Risk
$6.50 per contract
Max Reward
Substantial if stock continues falling
Ideal Scenario: Break below $185 support level