Regime
Sector rotation from tech to value/cyclicals, mixed momentum environment
Bias
Cautiously bullish on energy/financials, bearish on mega-cap tech
Best Setups
Energy breakouts, financial relative strength, select cloud software
Avoid
Semiconductors in breakdown, most mega-cap tech showing distribution
high
2-3 weeks
3-4%
4% pop with massive volume (26M vs avg ~15M) breaks above 20-day MA resistance. Strong relative strength vs tech sector which is down 1.4%
Catalyst: Earnings momentum follow-through, cloud software strength
Entry
$200-202 on any pullback or breakout above $201
Invalidation: Break below $190 or tech sector breakdown accelerates
medium
3-4 weeks
2-3%
Breaking out with 2.3% gain and massive volume (69M). Testing 52-week lows recently provides strong base
Catalyst: Streaming competition stabilizing, cost cuts flowing to bottom line
Entry
$85-86 on any morning dip
Invalidation: Break below $80 or broader tech selloff continues
high
1-2 months
4-5%
Testing 52-week highs at $55.93, currently at $55.05. Oil strength with relative outperformance
Catalyst: Energy shortage concerns, geopolitical tensions, refining margins
Entry
$55.20 breakout above resistance
Invalidation: Oil prices collapse below $62 or broader market crash
medium
2-4 weeks
2%
5.5% decline on monster volume (358M), breaking down from $195 level. Far from highs at $212
Catalyst: AI bubble concerns, valuation compression, margin pressure
Entry
$182-185 on any bounce to resistance
Invalidation: Reclaim $195 with volume or new AI catalyst emerges
high
GLD ETF or GC futures
1-2 months
Breaking higher on dollar weakness, testing toward $5,586 highs from recent base
Entry
$5,220-5,240 on any dip
Key Levels: Resistance $5,586, Support $5,100
medium
USO ETF or CL futures
3-6 weeks
0.78% gain testing toward $78.40 highs, geopolitical premium building
Key Levels: Resistance $78.40, Support $60
medium
2-4 weeks
2%
Failed to hold $68K, down 0.6% with institutional selling. 46% below ATH shows major distribution
On-Chain Signal: Whale addresses reducing holdings, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$67,500-68,000 on any bounce
speculative
2-3 weeks
1-2%
Trending #5 crypto, showing relative strength vs BTC/ETH with ecosystem growth
On-Chain Signal: DEX volumes increasing, NFT activity picking up
speculative
2-4 weeks
1%
25% weekly gain showing momentum, 2% daily gain with strong volume
On-Chain Signal: Parachain activity increasing, development momentum
Entry
$1.60-1.65 on pullback