AlphaLab

Pure Trade Ideas

2026-02-28 06:37

📈

Stock Ideas

4 ideas

NFLX

LONG

high 2-4 weeks 3-4%

NFLX exploded +13.7% on massive volume (190M vs avg ~30M), breaking out from base near $85. This is classic momentum - big volume breakout after consolidation

Catalyst: Earnings beat + subscriber growth, momentum traders piling in

Entry

$96-98 on any pullback to breakout level

Target

$115-120

Stop

$91

R:R

3:1

Invalidation: Close below $91 breakout level

XLE

LONG

medium 3-6 weeks 2-3%

Energy sector at 52-week high ($55.92 vs $56.15 high), oil momentum strong at $67. Clean breakout setup

Catalyst: Oil momentum + geopolitical tensions + sector rotation

Entry

$56.00-56.20 on new highs

Target

$62-64

Stop

$53.50

R:R

2.5:1

Invalidation: Break below $54 support

XLV

LONG

medium 4-8 weeks 2%

Healthcare at new highs ($160.20 vs $160.59), showing relative strength while tech weak. Defensive momentum

Catalyst: Flight to quality + earnings strength in healthcare

Entry

$160.50+ on new high breakout

Target

$170-175

Stop

$156

R:R

2:1

Invalidation: Failure to hold $157 support

ORCL

SHORT

medium 3-6 weeks 2%

ORCL down -3.3% breaking below $150 support, showing weakness vs tech peers. Failed at $345 highs, now breaking down

Catalyst: Cloud competition + valuation compression

Entry

$144-146 on bounce to resistance

Target

$130-135

Stop

$152

R:R

2:1

Invalidation: Reclaim $152 resistance

🛢️

Commodity Ideas

2 ideas

Crude Oil

LONG

high USO ETF 4-8 weeks

Oil breaking out +2.8% to $67 with volume. Breaking above $65 resistance after consolidation. Energy momentum strong

Entry

$67-68 area

Target

$74-76

Stop

$63

R:R

2:1

Key Levels: $65 support, $70 resistance, $78 major target

Gold

LONG

medium GLD ETF 6-12 weeks

Gold +1% to $5248, showing strength despite rate concerns. Breaking out of consolidation pattern

Entry

$5250-5280 area

Target

$5500-5600

Stop

$5150

R:R

2.5:1

Key Levels: $5200 support, $5400 resistance, $5586 prior high

₿

Crypto Ideas

2 ideas

BTC

SHORT

medium 2-4 weeks 2%

BTC rejected at $68K, now breaking down -5.2%. Failed multiple times at resistance, momentum turning negative

On-Chain Signal: Volume spike on breakdown suggests institutional selling

Entry

$63,000-64,500 on any bounce

Target

$58,000-60,000

Stop

$67,000

R:R

2:1

ETH

SHORT

medium 3-5 weeks 1.5%

ETH even weaker than BTC, -8.1% and breaking key $1900 support. Relative weakness play

On-Chain Signal: ETH/BTC ratio breaking down, showing institutional rotation out

Entry

$1850-1900 on bounce attempts

Target

$1650-1700

Stop

$1980

R:R

2:1

📊

Options Plays

2 plays

NFLX

high

Long Call | $100 strike | March 21, 2026

Capture momentum breakout with defined risk. High IV after move but momentum should continue

Max Risk

Premium paid (~$8-10)

Max Reward

Unlimited above $108-110

Breakeven

~$108-110

Ideal Scenario: NFLX continues to $115+ on momentum

ORCL

medium

Put Spread | $145/$140 Put Spread | April 18, 2026

Capture breakdown with limited risk. Better risk/reward than shorting stock

Max Risk

$2.00 per spread

Max Reward

$3.00 per spread

Breakeven

$143

Ideal Scenario: ORCL breaks below $140 on continued weakness

⚖️

Pairs Trades

1 pairs

high 1:1 dollar weighted 4-8 weeks

LONG

XLE (Energy)

vs

SHORT

XLK (Tech)

Energy at highs showing strength while Tech breaking down. Classic sector rotation trade

Entry Spread

XLE/XLK ratio currently favorable

Target Spread

10-15% outperformance

Stop Spread

If tech reclaims highs vs energy weakness

🚫

Avoid These

🚫 NVDA

Down -4.2% but still in strong uptrend. Don't short strong stocks in pullbacks - wait for real breakdown

The Trap: Looks weak but $177 is just pullback in monster uptrend from $86 lows

🚫 AAPL

Down -3.2% but not breaking key support yet. Knife catching territory

The Trap: Looks 'cheap' at $264 vs $288 highs but no real breakdown signal yet

🚫 META

Down but holding above key $640 support. Still in uptrend

The Trap: Pullback looks tradeable but no momentum breakdown yet