Regime
RISK-ON momentum with sector rotation into Tech
Bias
Bullish momentum in select tech names, bearish in commodities/crypto
Best Setups
Large-cap tech breakouts, energy weakness, crypto breakdowns
Avoid
Anything stuck in consolidation - need clean breakouts/breakdowns only
high
4-8 weeks
3-5% of portfolio
Strong momentum continuation after 3.4% gap up with massive volume (37.5M vs avg). Breaking above key resistance at $295 with authority. AI narrative driving relative strength vs peers.
Catalyst: Earnings momentum, AI product launches, potential breakout to new yearly highs
Entry
$297-300 on any pullback to breakout level
Target
$340 (next major resistance)
Stop
$285 (below breakout support)
Invalidation: Close back below $290 for 2 consecutive days
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Massive 8.8% breakout on huge volume (129M shares). Breaking multi-month downtrend with conviction. Potential dead cat bounce becoming something more substantial.
Catalyst: Potential restructuring news, foundry business developments
Entry
$48-49 on any morning dip
Target
$54 (52-week high test)
Stop
$44 (back into base)
Invalidation: Failure to hold $46 support
medium
3-6 weeks
2-4% of portfolio
3.3% move with strong volume, breaking above $210. Semiconductor momentum play following NVDA strength. Good relative strength vs sector.
Catalyst: AI chip demand, data center growth
Entry
$210-212 on pullback to breakout
Target
$245 (gap fill toward highs)
Stop
$200 (below psychological support)
Invalidation: Break below $205 with volume
medium
4-8 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Heavy distribution day with -1.3% decline on increased volume. Major distance from 52-week high ($345 vs current $145). Showing relative weakness vs tech sector.
Catalyst: Cloud competition pressure, slowing growth concerns
Entry
$144-146 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$125 (next major support)
Stop
$152 (above recent highs)
Invalidation: Reclaim $150 with volume
speculative
3-6 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Continued weakness, down -0.6% while market rallies. Trading well below recent highs. Streaming wars intensifying, subscription growth concerns.
Catalyst: Subscriber miss, increased competition
Entry
$94-96 on any dead cat bounce
Target
$80 (major support zone)
Stop
$100 (above recent resistance)
Invalidation: Break above $105 convincingly
high
USO ETF or CL futures
4-8 weeks
Explosive 5.9% breakout move on massive volume. Breaking above $105 resistance with conviction. Geopolitical tensions escalating.
Entry
$105-107 on any pullback
Target
$115-118 (next resistance zone)
Stop
$98 (below breakout support)
Key Levels: Support: $100, $95 | Resistance: $110, $119
medium
GLD puts or short futures
6-12 weeks
Heavy selling pressure with -3.7% decline. Breaking key support levels. Dollar strength pressuring precious metals.
Entry
$4650-4700 on any bounce
Target
$4200-4300 (major support)
Stop
$4850 (above recent highs)
Key Levels: Resistance: $4800, $4900 | Support: $4300, $4000
medium
2-4 weeks
2-3% of portfolio
Heavy selling with -6.4% decline, breaking below $80 support. Showing relative weakness vs BTC. Technical damage suggests more downside.
On-Chain Signal: DEX volumes declining, validator staking rewards dropping
Entry
$80-82 on any bounce to resistance
Target
$65-68 (next major support)
Stop
$88 (above breakdown level)
speculative
4-8 weeks
1-2% of portfolio
Failed at resistance near $70K, now showing distribution with -3.6% decline. Volume confirming weakness.
On-Chain Signal: Exchange inflows increasing, long liquidations accelerating
Entry
$67000-68000 on bounce to resistance
Target
$58000-60000 (major support zone)
Stop
$72000 (above recent highs)