Regime
Selective momentum - strong names getting stronger, weak names breaking down
Bias
Semiconductor/AI momentum continuing, software under pressure, mixed macro signals
Best Setups
Chip stocks breaking out (AMD, NVDA, INTC), energy commodities (oil), short weak software
Avoid
Software (CRM, ADBE weakness), Financials (XLF down), traditional tech laggards
high
2-4 weeks
3-4% of portfolio
Strong momentum with +3.55% breakout on massive volume (35.8M), approaching 52-week high at $267. Semiconductor strength play.
Catalyst: AI/data center demand driving chip stocks higher, potential earnings beat coming
Entry
$244-246 on any pullback to breakout level
Target
$267 (52-week high), then $280
Stop
$235 (below breakout)
Invalidation: Break below $235 with volume would signal false breakout
high
3-6 weeks
4-5% of portfolio
Explosive +2.55% move on 159M volume (highest in dataset), still 11% below 52-week high with room to run
Catalyst: AI momentum continuing, potential guidance raise on next earnings
Entry
$187-190 on any morning dip
Target
$212 (52-week high), then $225
Stop
$180 (below recent support)
Invalidation: Break below $180 would kill the momentum setup
medium
1-2 months
2-3% of portfolio
Breaking out to new 52-week high at $63.39, +1.07% on 98M volume - massive turnaround story gaining momentum
Catalyst: Foundry business improvements, potential activist investor interest
Entry
$62-63 on any pullback
Target
$70 first, then $75
Stop
$58 (below recent consolidation)
Invalidation: Failure to hold above $58 would signal weakness return
medium
4-6 weeks
2% of portfolio
Heavy selling pressure -3.45%, testing 52-week low at $163.52. Weak enterprise software demand showing
Catalyst: Enterprise spending cuts, subscription model under pressure
Entry
$165-167 on any bounce
Stop
$175 (above recent resistance)
Invalidation: Break above $175 with volume would signal bottom
speculative
6-8 weeks
1.5% of portfolio
Testing 52-week low at $224.13, down -2% with weak momentum. Software sector rotation out continuing
Catalyst: AI competition hurting Creative Suite pricing power
Entry
$226-228 on dead cat bounce
Stop
$240 (above 20-day MA)
Invalidation: Recovery above $240 would suggest institutional support
high
USO ETF or CL futures
4-8 weeks
Explosive +7.33% breakout above $100, strong momentum continuation setup toward $119.48 highs
Entry
$102-104 on any pullback
Stop
$96 (below breakout level)
Key Levels: Support at $100, resistance at $110 and $119.48
medium
GLD ETF or GC futures
6-10 weeks
Failed at highs, down -0.58% showing weakness. Still 15% below 52-week high, momentum fading
Entry
$4780-4800 on any bounce
Stop
$4900 (above recent highs)
Key Levels: Support at $4500, resistance at $4900
medium
3-6 weeks
2-3% of crypto allocation
Failed at $71K, showing weakness with -1.26% decline. 43% below ATH shows momentum has stalled
On-Chain Signal: Long-term holders taking profits, exchange inflows increasing
Entry
$71,500-72,000 on any bounce
Target
$65,000, then $60,000
Stop
$75,000 (above recent highs)
medium
4-6 weeks
2% of crypto allocation
Underperforming BTC, down -1.47% and 55% below ATH. Weak relative strength vs market
On-Chain Signal: DeFi TVL declining, staking rewards not compelling vs risk
Entry
$2200-2220 on bounce
speculative
1-2 weeks
0.5% speculative position
Parabolic move +233% unsustainable, classic pump setup for reversal
On-Chain Signal: Massive volume spike indicates distribution phase beginning
Entry
$9.20-9.50 (any bounce from current levels)
Stop
$11.00 (above recent high)
🚫 MSFT
Down -0.59%, far from 52-week high, no momentum setup
The Trap: Looks 'cheap' vs recent highs but showing relative weakness
🚫 AAPL
Flat performance, 10% below highs, no momentum catalyst
The Trap: Brand loyalty narrative vs. actual price action weakness
🚫 XLF
Financials down -1.09%, sector rotation out continuing
The Trap: Value metrics look good but momentum is clearly negative