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MarketPulse

Alpha Intelligence
Monday, February 02, 2026
07:03 EST
Regime 🔴

Risk Off

2-4 weeks - typical correction phase duration in bull market

Tech selloff: XLK down -2.04% with NASDAQ leading declines at -0.94%; VIX spike: +3.32% to 17.44, breaking above 17 resistance; Safe haven flows: XLP +1.68%, XLV +0.60% outperforming

80%
Confidence
^GSPC 6,939.03 -0.43%
^DJI 48,892.47 -0.37%
^IXIC 23,461.82 -0.94%
^RUT 2,613.74 -1.55%
^VIX 17.44 +3.32%
^FTSE 10,223.54 +0.51%
^N225 52,655.18 -1.25%
XLK 143.88 -2.04%
XLF 53.44 -0.21%
XLV 154.74 +0.60%
XLE 51.05 +1.07%
XLI 165.44 -0.25%
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Alpha Ideas

Long TSLA momentum breakout above $435
high conviction weeks
Strongest stock in weak market, relative strength screaming institutional accumulation
Entry
Break above $435 with volume confirmation
Target
Target $460-480, stop $415
Sizing
2-3% position - high conviction momentum play
Short XLK / Long XLP pairs trade
high conviction weeks
Sector rotation accelerating, tech vulnerability exposed, defensive strength continuing
Entry
Current levels - XLK $143.88 / XLP $83.51
Target
Target XLK to $135, XLP to $86
Sizing
Market neutral 5% notional each side
Long VIX above 18
medium conviction days
Fear spike has room to run, correction just starting
Entry
VIX break above 18 on next down day
Target
Target 22-25, stop 16.5
Sizing
1% speculative position via VIX calls
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Index Analysis

SP500 bearish

Breaking below previous close support at 6969, next major test at 6850 (50-day MA area)

Support 6850, 6800
Resistance 6969, 7002
NASDAQ bearish

Worst performer today at -0.94%, tech rotation accelerating, 52-week high at 24020 now major resistance

Support 23200, 22800
Resistance 23685, 24020
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Sector Rotation

Leadership: Consumer Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), Energy (XLE)

Laggards: Technology (XLK), Materials (XLB), Russell 2000

Signal: Classic flight-to-quality rotation from growth to defensive sectors

Long XLP / Short XLK

Rationale: Staples at new highs (+1.68%) while tech breaks down (-2.04%), momentum divergence widening

Risk: Tech bounces from oversold levels, defensive rotation reverses

Long XLE above $51.20

Rationale: Energy showing relative strength +1.07%, near 52-week high at $51.73, oil complex stabilizing

Risk: Crude oil breakdown below $60 would kill energy momentum

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Stock Signals

TSLA bullish

Monster move +3.32% while entire market sells off - classic relative strength leader

Catalyst: Earnings momentum, FSD developments, contrarian play in tech selloff

Risk/Reward: High conviction - outperforming in down market signals institutional accumulation

AMD bearish

Bloodbath -6.13% on heavy volume, breaking key support levels

Catalyst: Semiconductor cycle concerns, AI trade rotation, earnings disappointment risk

Risk/Reward: Avoid - falling knife in broken sector

INTC bearish

Collapse -4.50% confirming structural weakness, new 52-week low watch

Catalyst: Foundry struggles, market share losses, manufacturing issues

Risk/Reward: Stay away - no momentum signs, dead money

AAPL watch

Holding up better than peers +0.46% while NASDAQ crashes

Catalyst: Earnings next week, services growth, iPhone cycle

Risk/Reward: Defensive tech play if it breaks above $260

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Crypto Alpha

Bitcoin

BTC $76,387 testing key $76K support - break below targets $72K, hold above keeps $80K in play

Ethereum

ETH $2,221 in freefall -8.06% - major breakdown, target $2,000 psychological support

Alt Rotation

Altcoin massacre across the board - avoid until BTC/ETH stabilize

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Contrarian Corner

The Consensus vs. The Counter

Consensus View
Analyzing market consensus...
Contrarian Case
Building contrarian thesis...
Trigger to Watch
Identifying confirmation signals...
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Risk Radar

Risk Probability Impact Hedge
Tech earnings disappointments cascade MEDIUM NASDAQ could test 22,000 if mega-cap earnings disappoint Long VIX calls, short QQQ, overweight defensive sectors
Credit market stress emerges LOW High yield spreads blowout would trigger broader selloff Monitor HYG breakdown below $82, reduce risk assets
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Weekly Watchlist

TSLA
Watch for: Break above $435 resistance on volume
Action: Buy breakout for momentum continuation to $460+
XLK
Watch for: Break below $140 support
Action: Add to short position, target $135
VIX
Watch for: Sustained move above 18
Action: Buy VIX calls for correction continuation
AMD
Watch for: Any bounce to $245-250 area
Action: Short the bounce - semiconductor weakness continuing
AAPL
Watch for: Hold above $255 during tech selloff
Action: Consider defensive tech position if market stabilizes