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MarketPulse

Alpha Intelligence
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
07:01 EST
Regime 🔴

Risk Off

2-4 weeks - this feels like a momentum break that could test major support

VIX spike to 21.01 (+10.06% in one day); Broad selling pressure: SPX -1.04%, NDX -1.13%, RUT -1.61%; Mega-cap tech weakness: MSFT -3.21%, META -2.81%, TSLA -2.91%

85%
Confidence
^GSPC 6,837.75 -1.04%
^DJI 48,804.06 -1.66%
^IXIC 22,627.27 -1.13%
^RUT 2,620.99 -1.61%
^VIX 21.01 +10.06%
^FTSE 10,684.74 -0.02%
^N225 57,321.09 +0.87%
XLK 138.52 -1.68%
XLF 50.73 -3.35%
XLV 158.54 +1.10%
XLE 55.15 +0.49%
XLI 174.83 -1.35%
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Alpha Ideas

Short QQQ / Long XLV pairs trade
high conviction weeks
Tech momentum broken while healthcare shows defensive strength. Classic late-cycle rotation.
Entry
Short QQQ at $490, Long XLV at $158
Target
Target 10% spread widening, stop if QQQ reclaims $500
Sizing
5% of portfolio - this is the key sector rotation trade
NVDA long on any pullback to $180-185
high conviction months
Only mega-cap showing momentum. AI story intact, trend from $86 still strong.
Entry
Scale in $180-185 range on any weakness
Target
Target $220, stop below $170
Sizing
3-5% position - best momentum name in market
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Index Analysis

SP500 bearish

Critical test coming - lost 52-week high momentum at 7002, now 2.4% below. Break of 6700 opens door to deeper correction.

Support 6700, 6600
Resistance 6900, 6950
NASDAQ bearish

Tech leadership faltering badly. 5.8% off highs and breaking key support. This is where bear markets often start.

Support 22000, 21500
Resistance 23000, 23500
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Sector Rotation

Leadership: Healthcare (XLV +1.10%), Consumer Staples (XLP +1.23%), Utilities (XLU +0.76%)

Laggards: Financials (XLF -3.35%), Technology (XLK -1.68%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.09%)

Signal: Classic defensive rotation - money fleeing growth/cyclicals into bond proxies and recession hedges

Long XLV / Short XLF

Rationale: Healthcare showing relative strength while financials collapsing on rate concerns

Risk: If rates actually fall, financials could snap back hard

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Stock Signals

AAPL watch

Only mega-cap showing strength +0.60% while peers crater. Potential relative strength leader.

Catalyst: AI iPhone cycle narrative could drive breakout above $270

Risk/Reward: Good risk/reward at current levels with $250 support

NVDA bullish

Bucking tech selloff +0.91%. Still in uptrend from $86 lows, approaching $200 resistance.

Catalyst: AI infrastructure spending continues, earnings momentum

Risk/Reward: Excellent - trend is intact, any pullback to $180 is buyable

MSFT bearish

Massive breakdown -3.21%, breaking below $390 support. Momentum completely broken.

Catalyst: Cloud growth concerns, massive valuation at 28x earnings

Risk/Reward: Avoid - downside to $350 range likely

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Crypto Alpha

Bitcoin

Bitcoin in free fall -4.1% to $63K. Critical support at $60K, break targets $55K. Dollar strength is crypto kryptonite.

Ethereum

ETH weaker than BTC -3.13% to $1820. Looks vulnerable to $1700 retest.

Alt Rotation

Altcoins getting destroyed - SOL -3.08%, ADA -3.55%. No leadership anywhere in crypto.

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Contrarian Corner

The Consensus vs. The Counter

Consensus View
Analyzing market consensus...
Contrarian Case
Building contrarian thesis...
Trigger to Watch
Identifying confirmation signals...
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Risk Radar

Risk Probability Impact Hedge
Tech earnings disappointment cascade MEDIUM Major indices down 10-15% if FAANG earnings disappoint Long VIX calls, short QQQ, rotate to defensive sectors
Dollar strength accelerating HIGH Crushes commodities, crypto, and emerging markets further Avoid international exposure, long UUP (dollar ETF)
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Weekly Watchlist

SPY
Watch for: Break below $670 support
Action: Add QQQ shorts, defensive longs if support fails
XLF
Watch for: Any bounce toward $52
Action: Short the bounce - financials look broken
BTC-USD
Watch for: Break below $60K
Action: Aggressive short toward $55K target
VIX
Watch for: Move above 25
Action: Signals accelerating selloff - go maximum defensive