Venture Capital Intelligence Report
February 05, 2026 • Synthesizing insights from top-tier VCs
VCs seeing mixed signals - public tech selloff creating private opportunity, but LPs demanding more discipline on valuations and burn rates
Series A crunch continues while seed remains active; growth rounds require clear path to profitability
Down 20-40% from 2021 peaks, with AI companies maintaining premium but facing scrutiny on actual revenue generation
The picks-and-shovels play is real - someone has to build the plumbing for the AI economy, and current cloud providers can't handle specialized workloads efficiently
Horizontal AI tools are table stakes - the real value is in AI that understands specific workflows and can take actions, not just generate content
IRA funding is finally flowing, corporate climate commitments are real, and the technology is reaching commercial viability
Geopolitical tensions plus government willingness to buy from startups creates massive TAM - and many technologies have civilian applications
The next great technology companies will be built at the intersection of Silicon Valley innovation and government/enterprise needs
The SaaS model is fundamentally changing - AI agents will replace human workflows, not just augment them
First wave of climate tech failed because it ignored economics - this wave must be profitable from day one
AI systems that can interact with the physical world through robotic platforms
Foundation models + improved sensors + cheaper compute finally making general-purpose robots viable
$12T automation market globally
Early signals from: a16z, General Catalyst, Index
Companies to watch: Figure, 1X Technologies, Sanctuary AI
AI-powered compliance and regulatory management for heavily regulated industries
Regulatory complexity increasing exponentially while costs of non-compliance skyrocketing
$300B global compliance spending
Early signals from: Bessemer, Accel, Lightspeed
Companies to watch: Hummingbird, Drata, Vanta
Technologies focused on extending healthy lifespan rather than just treating disease
Aging populations creating massive healthcare costs, breakthrough research in cellular reprogramming
$600B+ market as populations age globally
Early signals from: a16z, General Catalyst, Kleiner
Companies to watch: Altos Labs, Retro Biosciences, NewLimit
Previous: Red hot in 2021-2022 with massive rounds → Now: Significant funding decline, user acquisition costs unsustainable
iOS privacy changes crushed unit economics, TikTok dominance makes competition nearly impossible
What Changed: Realization that network effects don't guarantee profitability and regulation risks are high
VCs Cautious: Benchmark, Greylock, Index
Previous: Billions flowing in 2021-2022 across all crypto categories → Now: Selective funding only for proven teams with real usage
Most L1/L2 solutions failed to gain traction, regulatory uncertainty remains high
What Changed: Market shifted from 'build it and they will come' to 'show me the users and revenue'
VCs Cautious: Sequoia, Lightspeed, Greylock
Data moats are overrated - workflow integration and switching costs are the real defensibility
💡 Focus on becoming embedded in customer workflows, not just having better algorithms
— Sequoia Capital
Raise less money at lower valuations to preserve upside and reduce pressure
💡 Target 18-24 months runway, focus on metrics that matter to next round investors
— Benchmark Capital
Product-led growth is dead for B2B - enterprise sales teams are back
💡 Invest in sales and customer success from Series A, not growth stage
— Greylock Partners
Stop competing for FAANG engineers - find domain experts who can learn to code
💡 Hire from the industry you're disrupting, train them on your tech stack
— Index Ventures
Mega-rounds concentrated in AI and infrastructure plays, but overall deal count down 35% YoY as VCs focus on quality over quantity
Series C • Lead: Google Ventures • Others: Spark Capital, Salesforce Ventures, Zoom Ventures
Validates continued massive investment in AI safety and constitutional AI approaches
Foundation ModelsSeries F • Lead: Accel Partners • Others: Tiger Global, Dragoneer, Index Ventures
Shows enterprise willingness to pay premium for high-quality training data
AI InfrastructureAcquisition • Key investors: Accel, CapitalG, Sequoia
RPA + AI integration thesis validated - automation market consolidating around leaders
IPO • Key investors: Sequoia, General Catalyst, a16z
Fintech infrastructure plays can achieve massive scale when they become mission-critical
AI will create more jobs than it destroys in the next 5 years
Most believe AI will cause widespread unemployment
Reasoning: Historical precedent shows technology creates new categories of work faster than it eliminates old ones
Their Bet: Investing in companies that augment rather than replace human workers
Europe will produce the next $100B+ AI company
AI dominance will remain US-China duopoly
Reasoning: GDPR and privacy regulations create competitive advantage for European AI companies in enterprise
Their Bet: Doubling down on European AI infrastructure and enterprise AI companies
First AI agent will generate $1B+ in revenue by end of 2026
HIGHGreylock Partners • Timeframe: End of 2026
Implications: Will trigger massive wave of AI agent investment and validate agent-first business models
50% of Series A rounds will require profitability within 2 years by 2027
MEDIUMBessemer Venture Partners • Timeframe: 2027
Implications: Forces return to fundamentals and benefits capital-efficient business models
Major tech platform will be built entirely by AI agents by 2028
SPECULATIVEAndreessen Horowitz • Timeframe: 2028
Implications: Would fundamentally change software development economics and speed
Will validate or deflate massive AI infrastructure investments
20%+ of Fortune 500 report meaningful AI productivity gains
Companies admit AI spending not yet driving ROI
Indicates whether dual-use thesis will play out at scale
Major contracts go to venture-backed startups over incumbents
Traditional defense contractors maintain dominance
Public market reception will determine private funding availability
Clean energy companies trade at premium to traditional energy
Climate IPOs underperform, cooling private investment