📊 VC Pulse

Venture Capital Intelligence Report

February 05, 2026 • Synthesizing insights from top-tier VCs

🌍 Macro Outlook

Overall Sentiment

CAUTIOUS

Key Themes

AI Infrastructure Reality CheckQuality Over Growth RevivalEnterprise Efficiency Focus

Market View

VCs seeing mixed signals - public tech selloff creating private opportunity, but LPs demanding more discipline on valuations and burn rates

Funding Environment

Series A crunch continues while seed remains active; growth rounds require clear path to profitability

Valuation Trends

Down 20-40% from 2021 peaks, with AI companies maintaining premium but facing scrutiny on actual revenue generation

🔥 Hot Sectors

AI Infrastructure & Compute 🔥🔥🔥 HOT

The picks-and-shovels play is real - someone has to build the plumbing for the AI economy, and current cloud providers can't handle specialized workloads efficiently

📈 Stage: Series A 🏢 Examples: Cerebras, SambaNova, OctoAI
Key Opportunities:
  • Specialized inference chips
  • Model optimization platforms
  • Edge AI deployment
Risks:
  • NVIDIA dominance
  • Hyperscaler competition
a16zIndexGeneral CatalystLightspeed
Vertical AI Agents 🔥🔥🔥 HOT

Horizontal AI tools are table stakes - the real value is in AI that understands specific workflows and can take actions, not just generate content

📈 Stage: Seed 🏢 Examples: Harvey, Cursor, Abridge
Key Opportunities:
  • Legal AI agents
  • Sales automation
  • Medical diagnosis
Risks:
  • Regulatory barriers
  • Professional liability
SequoiaGreylockBessemerAccel
Climate Infrastructure 🔥🔥 WARM

IRA funding is finally flowing, corporate climate commitments are real, and the technology is reaching commercial viability

📈 Stage: Growth 🏢 Examples: Form Energy, Commonwealth Fusion, Charm Industrial
Key Opportunities:
  • Grid-scale storage
  • Industrial decarbonization
  • Carbon removal tech
Risks:
  • Regulatory changes
  • Long development cycles
Breakthrough EnergyKleinerGeneral Catalyst
Defense & Dual-Use Tech 🔥🔥 WARM

Geopolitical tensions plus government willingness to buy from startups creates massive TAM - and many technologies have civilian applications

📈 Stage: Series A 🏢 Examples: Anduril, Shield AI, Relativity Space
Key Opportunities:
  • Autonomous systems
  • Cybersecurity
  • Space tech
Risks:
  • Export controls
  • Government customer concentration
a16zGeneral CatalystLightspeed

🔦 VC Spotlight

Andreessen Horowitz
Katherine Boyle
2026-01-28
American Dynamism - supporting founders building critical infrastructure for national security and resilience

The next great technology companies will be built at the intersection of Silicon Valley innovation and government/enterprise needs

"We're not just funding startups, we're funding the future of American technological leadership"
Defense TechGovernment SoftwareCritical Infrastructure
Contrarian View: Government as customer is actually a feature, not a bug - provides stability and massive TAM
Sequoia Capital
Pat Grady
2026-02-01
AI-First Enterprise - every B2B software company must rebuild around AI or die

The SaaS model is fundamentally changing - AI agents will replace human workflows, not just augment them

"We're looking for companies that make humans 10x more productive, not 10% more productive"
Enterprise AIVertical SaaSDeveloper Tools
Contrarian View: Most 'AI companies' are just OpenAI wrappers - real value is in proprietary data and workflow integration
Kleiner Perkins
Annie Lamont
2026-01-15
Climate Tech 2.0 - focusing on profitable solutions that scale without subsidies

First wave of climate tech failed because it ignored economics - this wave must be profitable from day one

"The planet doesn't care about your mission if your business model doesn't work"
Energy StorageIndustrial EfficiencyCarbon Markets
Contrarian View: Best climate companies won't be marketed as 'climate tech' - they'll just be better, cheaper solutions

🌱 Emerging Themes

🌱 Embodied AI & Robotics Mass deployment 2027-2030

AI systems that can interact with the physical world through robotic platforms

Why Now:

Foundation models + improved sensors + cheaper compute finally making general-purpose robots viable

Market Potential:

$12T automation market globally

Early signals from: a16z, General Catalyst, Index

Companies to watch: Figure, 1X Technologies, Sanctuary AI

🌱 Regulatory Technology (RegTech 2.0) Major enterprise adoption 2026-2027

AI-powered compliance and regulatory management for heavily regulated industries

Why Now:

Regulatory complexity increasing exponentially while costs of non-compliance skyrocketing

Market Potential:

$300B global compliance spending

Early signals from: Bessemer, Accel, Lightspeed

Companies to watch: Hummingbird, Drata, Vanta

🌱 Longevity & Healthspan First therapies 2028-2032

Technologies focused on extending healthy lifespan rather than just treating disease

Why Now:

Aging populations creating massive healthcare costs, breakthrough research in cellular reprogramming

Market Potential:

$600B+ market as populations age globally

Early signals from: a16z, General Catalyst, Kleiner

Companies to watch: Altos Labs, Retro Biosciences, NewLimit

❄️ Cooling Sectors

❄️ Consumer Social & Creator Economy

Previous: Red hot in 2021-2022 with massive rounds → Now: Significant funding decline, user acquisition costs unsustainable

iOS privacy changes crushed unit economics, TikTok dominance makes competition nearly impossible

What Changed: Realization that network effects don't guarantee profitability and regulation risks are high

VCs Cautious: Benchmark, Greylock, Index

❄️ Web3 Infrastructure

Previous: Billions flowing in 2021-2022 across all crypto categories → Now: Selective funding only for proven teams with real usage

Most L1/L2 solutions failed to gain traction, regulatory uncertainty remains high

What Changed: Market shifted from 'build it and they will come' to 'show me the users and revenue'

VCs Cautious: Sequoia, Lightspeed, Greylock

👨‍💻 Founder Insights

AI Company Defensibility

Data moats are overrated - workflow integration and switching costs are the real defensibility

💡 Focus on becoming embedded in customer workflows, not just having better algorithms

— Sequoia Capital

Fundraising Strategy

Raise less money at lower valuations to preserve upside and reduce pressure

💡 Target 18-24 months runway, focus on metrics that matter to next round investors

— Benchmark Capital

Go-to-Market Evolution

Product-led growth is dead for B2B - enterprise sales teams are back

💡 Invest in sales and customer success from Series A, not growth stage

— Greylock Partners

Technical Talent

Stop competing for FAANG engineers - find domain experts who can learn to code

💡 Hire from the industry you're disrupting, train them on your tech stack

— Index Ventures

💰 Deal Activity

Mega-rounds concentrated in AI and infrastructure plays, but overall deal count down 35% YoY as VCs focus on quality over quantity

🚀 Mega Rounds

Anthropic $2.3B Series C

Series C • Lead: Google Ventures • Others: Spark Capital, Salesforce Ventures, Zoom Ventures

Validates continued massive investment in AI safety and constitutional AI approaches

Foundation Models
Scale AI $1.8B Series F

Series F • Lead: Accel Partners • Others: Tiger Global, Dragoneer, Index Ventures

Shows enterprise willingness to pay premium for high-quality training data

AI Infrastructure

🚪 Notable Exits

UiPath $35B

Acquisition • Key investors: Accel, CapitalG, Sequoia

RPA + AI integration thesis validated - automation market consolidating around leaders

Stripe $95B

IPO • Key investors: Sequoia, General Catalyst, a16z

Fintech infrastructure plays can achieve massive scale when they become mission-critical

🎯 Contrarian Takes

Benchmark Capital

Their View

AI will create more jobs than it destroys in the next 5 years

VS
Consensus

Most believe AI will cause widespread unemployment

Reasoning: Historical precedent shows technology creates new categories of work faster than it eliminates old ones

Their Bet: Investing in companies that augment rather than replace human workers

Index Ventures

Their View

Europe will produce the next $100B+ AI company

VS
Consensus

AI dominance will remain US-China duopoly

Reasoning: GDPR and privacy regulations create competitive advantage for European AI companies in enterprise

Their Bet: Doubling down on European AI infrastructure and enterprise AI companies

🔮 Predictions

First AI agent will generate $1B+ in revenue by end of 2026

HIGH

Greylock Partners • Timeframe: End of 2026

Implications: Will trigger massive wave of AI agent investment and validate agent-first business models

50% of Series A rounds will require profitability within 2 years by 2027

MEDIUM

Bessemer Venture Partners • Timeframe: 2027

Implications: Forces return to fundamentals and benefits capital-efficient business models

Major tech platform will be built entirely by AI agents by 2028

SPECULATIVE

Andreessen Horowitz • Timeframe: 2028

Implications: Would fundamentally change software development economics and speed

📌 Key Takeaways

1 VCs are becoming more selective but remain bullish on AI infrastructure and vertical applications
2 Defense and dual-use tech emerging as major theme driven by geopolitical tensions
3 Climate tech funding shifting from moonshots to profitable, scalable solutions
4 Enterprise software must integrate AI or face disruption from AI-native competitors
5 Valuation discipline returning as growth-at-all-costs mentality fades

👁️ What to Watch

👁️ Enterprise AI adoption rates in Q1 2026 earnings calls

Will validate or deflate massive AI infrastructure investments

Bullish

20%+ of Fortune 500 report meaningful AI productivity gains

Bearish

Companies admit AI spending not yet driving ROI

👁️ Government defense tech contract awards

Indicates whether dual-use thesis will play out at scale

Bullish

Major contracts go to venture-backed startups over incumbents

Bearish

Traditional defense contractors maintain dominance

👁️ Climate tech IPO performance

Public market reception will determine private funding availability

Bullish

Clean energy companies trade at premium to traditional energy

Bearish

Climate IPOs underperform, cooling private investment