Venture Capital Intelligence Report
February 10, 2026 • Synthesizing insights from top-tier VCs
VCs are seeing strong tech fundamentals but being more selective post-ZIRP adjustment. Quality companies with clear unit economics are getting funded while speculative plays face headwinds.
Series A/B crunch continues but seed funding remains robust for AI and infrastructure plays. LPs demanding longer runway planning from GPs.
Down rounds stabilizing, realistic pricing returning. AI infrastructure still commanding premiums but enterprise SaaS multiples compressing to sustainable levels.
The picks and shovels of the AI gold rush. Every enterprise needs AI infrastructure and developer tooling to build, deploy, and manage AI applications at scale.
AI-native solutions for specific industries with defensible data moats and domain expertise. Healthcare, legal, and financial services leading adoption.
Critical infrastructure for decarbonization with strong government tailwinds and corporate sustainability mandates driving demand.
Institutional crypto adoption driving demand for enterprise-grade infrastructure, custody solutions, and compliance tools.
The AI infrastructure stack is becoming as important as cloud infrastructure was 15 years ago, with similar winner-take-most dynamics emerging
AI is enabling the unbundling of traditional enterprise software categories, creating opportunities for AI-native vertical solutions
Climate tech is entering its second wave with proven business models, supportive policy, and massive corporate demand
Autonomous AI agents that can perform complex multi-step business processes with minimal human supervision
LLM capabilities crossing threshold for reliable autonomous operation, enterprise comfort with AI increasing
$500B+ market as agents replace human knowledge workers in specific functions
Early signals from: Greylock, Index, General Catalyst
Companies to watch: Adept, Relevance AI, Sierra
AI systems designed to protect against AI-powered attacks and ensure AI safety/governance
AI attack vectors multiplying, regulatory pressure for AI governance, enterprise need for AI oversight
$50B+ cybersecurity adjacent market
Early signals from: a16z, Accel, Bessemer
Companies to watch: Robust Intelligence, Arthur AI, Guardrails AI
Bringing traditional assets like real estate, commodities, and securities onto blockchain infrastructure
Regulatory clarity improving, institutional infrastructure maturing, DeFi yields attractive
$10T+ of assets could be tokenized over next decade
Early signals from: a16z crypto, Paradigm, Variant
Companies to watch: Centrifuge, Maple Finance, Goldfinch
Previous: White hot 2021-2022 → Now: Significantly cooled
User acquisition costs soaring, platform dependency risks, and monetization challenges becoming apparent
What Changed: iOS privacy changes, TikTok competition, and creator burnout shifting dynamics
VCs Cautious: Benchmark, Greylock, Lightspeed
Previous: Consistently funded → Now: Highly selective
Market saturation and AI-native competitors disrupting traditional SaaS categories
What Changed: Every category has 10+ players, AI is enabling new approaches to old problems
VCs Cautious: Bessemer, Accel, Index
Focus on narrow use cases with clear ROI rather than trying to be a general-purpose AI solution
💡 Identify 1-2 specific workflows where AI provides 10x improvement, nail those, then expand
— Bessemer Venture Partners
Extend runway to 24+ months and show unit economics path to profitability within 18 months
💡 Raise assuming funding will be harder in 12-18 months, focus on efficiency metrics over growth-at-all-costs
— Lightspeed Venture Partners
Bring regulatory expertise in-house early, don't treat compliance as an afterthought
💡 Hire ex-regulators or compliance officers as advisors before Series A, build compliance into product architecture
— Andreessen Horowitz
Equity packages need to be competitive with big tech, consider unique structures like AI research sabbaticals
💡 Offer 20-30% more equity than traditional roles, create technical career tracks parallel to management
— Greylock Partners
Mega rounds still happening for category-defining companies, but deal volume down 40% YoY. Quality bar much higher.
Series C • Lead: Google Ventures • Others: Spark Capital, Salesforce Ventures
Validates continued massive investment in frontier AI models despite growing skepticism
Foundation ModelsSeries I • Lead: T. Rowe Price • Others: Fidelity, BlackRock
Shows continued appetite for data infrastructure plays as AI data needs explode
Data InfrastructureAcquisition • Key investors: Accel, CapitalG, Dragoneer
Automation/AI infrastructure remains highly strategic for big tech acquisition
AI startups are massively over-funded and most will fail to find sustainable business models
AI is the next platform shift worth any valuation
Reasoning: Lack of defensibility, intense competition from big tech, and unclear customer willingness to pay premium for AI
Their Bet: Focused on non-AI enterprise software with strong unit economics
European AI startups will outperform US counterparts over next 5 years
US has insurmountable AI advantage
Reasoning: Better talent cost structure, strong regulatory environment creating trust, less big tech competition
Their Bet: Doubling down on European AI infrastructure and application companies
50% of current AI infrastructure startups will pivot or shut down by end of 2027
HIGHKleiner Perkins • Timeframe: 2027
Implications: Massive consolidation coming as big tech builds competing solutions and open source commoditizes tools
First $100B+ AI-native software company will emerge by 2029
MEDIUMSequoia Capital • Timeframe: 2029
Implications: AI will enable winner-take-most dynamics even stronger than previous software waves
Crypto will represent 15%+ of VC dollars by 2028
SPECULATIVEa16z crypto • Timeframe: 2028
Implications: Institutional adoption and tokenization of everything drives massive capital flows into crypto infrastructure
Could commoditize entire categories of AI startup tools overnight
Big tech focuses on models, leaves tooling/applications to startups
Big tech builds comprehensive AI stacks, squeezing out startup opportunities
Real adoption data will separate hype from sustainable businesses
Enterprises show strong AI ROI and expand deployments rapidly
AI pilots fail to scale, enterprise adoption stalls
Government support critical for capital-intensive climate infrastructure
Enhanced tax credits and mandates accelerate climate tech adoption
Policy reversals or delays slow climate infrastructure investment