Venture Capital Intelligence Report
February 16, 2026 • Synthesizing insights from top-tier VCs
VCs are seeing a more selective funding environment with clear winners emerging in AI infrastructure while consumer and early-stage deals face increased scrutiny. The gap between Series A and growth rounds is widening.
Capital is concentrating among proven AI infrastructure players and profitable SaaS companies. Seed rounds remain competitive but Series A bar has risen significantly. Growth rounds are back for clear category leaders.
AI infrastructure commanding premium multiples while traditional SaaS seeing compression. Profitability and unit economics now table stakes for Series B+.
The picks-and-shovels play for AI transformation. Focus on developer tools, inference optimization, and enterprise AI deployment infrastructure
AI-native solutions for specific industries with defensible data moats and workflow integration
Hardware-enabled climate solutions with regulatory tailwinds and corporate procurement demand
Next wave of enterprise software will be agent-first rather than human-first interfaces
Every software category will have an AI-native winner that displaces the incumbent
Climate solutions moving from R&D to manufacturing scale-up phase with massive capital requirements
AI systems that can execute multi-step business processes autonomously rather than just providing insights
LLM reasoning capabilities reaching threshold for reliable autonomous execution
$200B+ in current BPO and consulting markets
Early signals from: a16z, Greylock, General Catalyst
Companies to watch: MultiOn, Adept AI, Cognition Labs
Cybersecurity solutions built from ground-up for AI-powered threats and AI system protection
AI attack vectors emerging faster than traditional security can adapt
$50B cybersecurity market getting completely reimagined
Early signals from: Accel, Lightspeed, Index
Companies to watch: Robust Intelligence, HiddenLayer, Calypso AI
Previous: Red hot 2021-2022 with massive rounds → Now: Significantly cooled with limited new funding
User acquisition costs skyrocketing, platform dependency risks, and monetization challenges in higher interest rate environment
What Changed: iOS privacy changes impacted growth metrics, macro headwinds reduced consumer spending on digital goods
VCs Cautious: Benchmark, Accel, Lightspeed
Previous: Explosive growth 2021-2022 → Now: Selective interest in institutional-grade infrastructure only
Regulatory uncertainty, retail interest waned, institutional adoption slower than expected
What Changed: Focus shifted from retail DeFi to enterprise blockchain and stablecoin infrastructure
VCs Cautious: a16z crypto, Paradigm, Coinbase Ventures
Don't build 'AI washing' features - build AI-native products that couldn't exist without AI
💡 If you can build your product without AI and just add AI features, you're not AI-native and will lose to someone who is
— Sarah Guo (Conviction)
Product-led growth still works but requires AI-powered personalization from day one
💡 Build AI into your onboarding, not just your core product - user experience needs to be magical from first touch
— Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures)
Offer equity in AI infrastructure/tooling companies - engineers want to work on foundational problems
💡 Position your company's role in the broader AI ecosystem, not just your specific product
— Li Jin (Variant)
Mega-rounds concentrated in proven AI infrastructure plays. Smaller rounds facing higher bars but quality companies still getting funded quickly. IPO window opening for profitable AI companies.
Series C • Lead: IVP • Others: NEA, Databricks Ventures, NVIDIA
Validates AI-native search as legitimate Google competitor, enterprise traction proving unit economics
AI SearchSeries B • Lead: Bezos Expeditions • Others: OpenAI, Microsoft, NVIDIA
Signals confluence of AI and robotics hitting commercial viability, manufacturing partnerships key
Robotics AIIPO • Key investors: a16z, NEA, Microsoft
AI infrastructure companies with strong enterprise adoption can command premium public market multiples
Current AI infrastructure layer will commoditize rapidly - the value will be in proprietary data and workflow integration
Most VCs betting on AI infrastructure and tooling companies
Reasoning: History shows infrastructure layers get commoditized by hyperscalers - real value is in application layer with network effects
Their Bet: Focusing on AI-enabled vertical software with strong data network effects
European AI startups will outcompete US counterparts on enterprise adoption due to regulatory compliance advantage
US maintains AI leadership across all segments
Reasoning: EU AI Act compliance will become competitive advantage as enterprises prioritize risk management
Their Bet: Doubling down on European AI startups with built-in compliance frameworks
First $100B+ AI company IPO by end of 2026
HIGHDoug Leone (Sequoia) • Timeframe: Q4 2026
Implications: Would validate AI as generational platform shift, accelerate enterprise adoption and VC deployment
50% of new enterprise software startups will be AI-agent platforms rather than traditional SaaS
MEDIUMMamoon Hamid (Kleiner Perkins) • Timeframe: By 2027
Implications: Fundamental shift in how business software is conceived and built
Climate tech will represent 30% of all VC dollars by 2028
SPECULATIVEJohn Doerr (Kleiner Perkins) • Timeframe: 2028
Implications: Would require massive scaling of climate infrastructure and manufacturing projects
Indicates speed of AI transformation in large organizations
If >20% by end 2026, validates massive AI infrastructure investments
If <10%, suggests AI adoption curve slower than expected
Leading indicator of autonomous AI adoption
Exponential growth validates agentic AI thesis and massive market opportunity
Slow adoption suggests AI agents not yet reliable enough for business-critical tasks