Nation-states building domestic AI capabilities driving massive infrastructure investment, $2T market by 2030
Beneficiaries
NVDAINTCAMD
At Risk
Traditional data center REITs
Timeframe: 3-5 years | Conviction: HIGH
Geopolitical fragmentation driving domestic energy investment, transition timeline extending
At Risk
European renewable developers
Timeframe: 5-10 years | Conviction: HIGH
AI investment surge not translating to productivity gains, earnings disappointment ahead
Beneficiaries
Defensive sectorsValue stocks
At Risk
High-multiple AI plays
Timeframe: 12-18 months | Conviction: MEDIUM
Supply chain resilience driving domestic manufacturing renaissance, policy support increasing
At Risk
China-exposed multinationals
Timeframe: 2-4 years | Conviction: MEDIUM
Excess savings depleted, credit tightening, normalization to pre-pandemic spending patterns
Beneficiaries
Dollar storesOff-price retailers
At Risk
Discretionary retailTravel/leisure
Timeframe: 6-12 months | Conviction: HIGH